quote:
yeah those are the major coalitions (and lol yes Turkey is just in this to kill Kurds..probably the biggest example of "this is a bunch of bullshite" in the entire conflict)....but i'd imagine WITHIN those coalitions there is a bunch of internal conflict, further splintering the actual "sides"

to put it another way, if any of these non-Assad coalitions was to gain power, how long would it take before they had a "civil war" within the ruling group? a year?

Agreed. I had to think for a minute before removing ISIS from the US/EU/Saudi/AQ side. They really didn't read the script of how this was supposed to go.

I don't know if I'd give it a full year if Assad fell. As much as the NeoCons here keep calling for Assad to die, no one can reasonably make the argument that any replacement would be measurably better for the Syrian people, and would likely be markedly worse for minorities in the country (Christians, Alawites, etc).

The whole thing gives me a bad taste in my mouth, because the sudden (and it was sudden) demand for Assad to go because he was a big meanie came as soon as the powers that be realized he would under no circumstances agree to a Saudi owned pipeline being built through Syria.

Side note on Turkey:

You can see witht he two pipelines proposed through Turkey, WHY they are on the fence between both the Russian and US/EU/Saudi side. Either way, they win and get a pipeline through Turkey that they can exert control over, they just don't want to side with the loser.

This post was edited on 4/5/17 at 11:08 am

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Posted by SlowFlowPro

Simple Solutions to Complex Probs

Member since Jan 2004

423961 posts

Posted on 4/5/17 at 11:13 am to cokebottleag

the problem is just how we view conflict compared to how they view conflict

like take America...our "war values" are still based in the Revolutionary War but most recently WWII. when we "win", we try to mold the losing side into our values system (although the post-WWII division of Europe was pretty terrible, but we couldn't really do anything). we don't have this irrational belief against the common people who were our prior enemies

the Middle East (as well as other areas, like Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia) has been at war for so long with so many cultural and ethnic conflicts/oppression that they are just harder people. when one side "wins", they think of this as an opportunity to slaughter their prior enemies, regardless of the individual participation in the actual conflict. they still see victory in war as requiring of spoils and a license to exert dominion over the losing side

so like your average American thinks of this conflict and goes "well we just need a non-dictator to win and with US support, they'll develop institutions and create a better society for all" but in reality it's more "they will consolidate power and develop institutions and stability so that they can more easily exterminate all opposition and exact revenge for previous oppression"

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