re: Tornado! Multi State Outbreak - New Tri-State Tornado

quote:

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Yeah, it's looking like a more subdued hurricane season

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That is my early hot take. A lot depends on how fast the atmosphere transitions to el nino conditions. SSTs are rapidly transitioning, esp. eastern zones like 1+2:





But the atmosphere continues to be low AAM and overall nina like:



I would expect the atmosphere to start the transition to el nino well before peak hurricane season. A top analog cluster returns an avg ACE of 64.