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re: Baseball Preview: 2017 Edition Feb 10th - Prospects & SEC Prediction

Posted on 2/1/17 at 7:42 am to
Posted by Adam4848
LA
Member since Apr 2006
19064 posts
Posted on 2/1/17 at 7:42 am to


Alex Lange - RHP



Jared Poche - LHP



Eric Walker - RHP



Zach Hess - RHP

STARTING PITCHING

Alex Lange Jr. 6'3 199lbs (35)*
Jared Poche Sr. 6'1 217lbs (16)*
Eric Walker Fr. 6'0 172lbs (10)*
Zach Hess Fr. 6'6 216lbs (38)*

LSU's starting rotation will be extremely top heavy with two steadfast veteran's in Alex Lange and Jared Poche, from there two talented but unproven freshmen in Eric Walker and Zach Hess should fight for the #3 and #4 spot respectively.

Alex Lange returns for his third and likely final season in an LSU uniform. As a part of the “fab four” Lange stepped foot onto campus overshadowed by his counterparts. Mac Marshall, Jake Latz, Jake Godfrey all drafted out of high school, all with electric arms, while Marshall was drafted in the 4th round by the Giants a year removed from JUCO both Latz and Godfrey have dealt with their respective struggles while Lange has thrived. Viewed as a raw power arm with projectability that needed to be refined Alex started perfecting and tweaking his curveball during fall ball of 2014. Alex is the definition of a power pitcher, his fastball will normally sit 93-94mph and by the end of the regular season he has the ability to peak at 96mph. The out pitch is a 12-6 power curve ball which is a plus plus pitch at the college level and what many call absolutely devastating. Due to Alex Lange's frame and arm slot his fastball typically isn't seen till the moment it leaves his hand, what sets him apart from many other pitchers is the way he can recreate the almost exact same arm slot with the power curve. From that point the batter is primarily guessing and with a power fastball working downhill he has the ability to blow it by most hitters. His change up is average to slightly above average which he'll primarily pitch to contact to keep a hitter off balance. One thing to watch out for and will be huge for Alex is limiting his walks and getting ahead of counts, his walk total last year was way too high. Lange who will start the season as the Tigers Friday night starter finds himself in a favorable spot as it’s not often in college a 1-2 duo start alongside each other for three consective years. Alex Lange is currently projected as a mid to lower first round draft pick in the 2017 MLB draft.

So much can be said about Jared Poche. A three year starter for the Tigers and the only pitcher in LSU history to win 9 games in his first three seasons he's only 11 wins shy of tieing Scott Schultz at 38 wins for the most all time at LSU. Last June Jared was ready to start his professional career as a projected top 10 round pick...however he ended up sliding to round 14 where the San Diego Padres grabbed him. Truth be told if the offer was right he would have taken it so much so that Mainieri didn't expect him back, but now Alan Dunn keeps a 3 year starter and a much needed left handed arm in the Saturday spot. Jared immediately becomes an important piece for this rotation and his return takes LSU from contending for the SEC Championship to contending for the National Championship. Jared will primarily pitch to contact where his fastball sits 89-91mph on most occasion, with a slightly above average changeup, and above average curveball which has been the one pitch he's most improved since 2013. As LSU's workhorse nothing specifically will ever wow you watching Poche, his bread and butter is pounding the zone to keep hitters off balance, at the college level he's mastered that art and his curve ball is starting to become an out pitch which bolds well for an increase in strikeouts. Look for Poche to remain comfortable in the Saturday spot where he's an above average #2 starter that with a little luck should come close to breaking LSU's win mark. With another solid year Poche could go anywhere from rounds 1-15 where a team would sign him quick being a senior.

Eric Walker much like Jared Poche doesn't have a wow factor. The 6'0 right handed pitcher works low on the mound and absolutely pounds the zone with relentlessness. He's great a mixing pitches and working fast where he throws an average fastball 88-90mph with downward life, an average curve ball, and what I find a great off speed changeup that may be average to above average. Walker is not a strikeout pitcher and won't be his freshman season, he keeps the ball low in the zone at all times which is critical to inducing ground balls. At the #3 starter LSU doesn't necessarily need an electric arm but rather a dependable arm that will provide a quality start more times than not. Eric who was a former quarterback at the 6A level in Texas continues to show composure on the mound during spring scrimmages where he's not falling behind counts, I've been very impressed with the way he's turned over the lineups as of recent.

Zach Hess was this freshmen classes highest draft risk and he has the potential to become a Friday night starter for 2018. At 6’6 with a wiry frame and unique leg kick Hess has a 92-93mph fastball that he throws from a three quarters slot, because of this his fastball has natural late movement. His best off speed is a power slider which can create swings and misses. Curve ball is average and is something that he'll need to exclusively work through with Dunn on becoming another out pitch. The key for Zach like many pitchers his age is going to be settling down at the start of games and finding his mechanics. When Zach can control his fastball and slider effectively he shows more potential and a higher ceiling that that of Eric Walker but for now it makes sense to rotate him between midweek starts and the #3 spot to see how he'll react.

Alex Lange

Arm Strength---------70
Movement-------------70
Stamina----------------70
Control-----------------50

Jared Poche

Arm Strength---------55
Movement-------------65
Stamina----------------60
Control-----------------60

Eric Walker

Arm Strength---------50
Movement-------------55
Stamina----------------50
Control-----------------65

Zach Hess

Arm Strength---------65
Movement-------------60
Stamina----------------50
Control-----------------40


FINAL GRADE: 70

My take: Jared Poche in 2017 may be what Louis Coleman was in 2009 to the eventual national champion team. Alex Lange and Jared Poche form arguably the best 1-2 punch in the nation, this unit will be a strength of the team. It's also going to be vital to incorporate a #3 and #4 starter this season and by all means Mainieri is set on accomplishing this. For now as long as one of Walker/Hess steps up and provides major innings the Tigers will be primed to make a run at the SEC Title. Also watch out for guys such as Todd Peterson, Caleb Gilbert, and Cole McKay as possible replacement starters.
This post was edited on 2/9/17 at 8:02 am
Posted by Adam4848
LA
Member since Apr 2006
19064 posts
Posted on 2/1/17 at 7:42 am to


Caleb Gilbert - RHP



Doug Norman - RHP



Russell Reynolds - RHP



Austin Bain - RHP



Todd Peterson - RHP



Hunter Kiel - RHP



Hunter Newman - RHP

RELIEF PITCHING

Middle Relief
Caleb Gilbert So. 6'2 179lbs (41)
Doug Norman Jr. 6'3 210lbs (21)
Austin Bain Jr. 6'1 188lbs (18)
Todd Peterson Fr. 6'5 224lbs (43)
Cole McKay So. 6'5 219lbs (33)
Will Reese Fr. 6'4 190lbs (38)
Nick Bush Fr. 6'1 193lbs (29)
Blair Frederick Fr. 6'0 193lbs (46)
Matthew Beck Fr. 6'7 228lbs (27)
Collin Strall Sr. 5'10 172lbs (30)


Setup Relief
Russell Reynolds Sr. 6'2 199lbs (45)
Hunter Kiel Jr. 6'3 221lbs (40)

Closer
Hunter Newman Sr. 6'3 196lbs (55)

*Alden Cartwright Sr. 6'0 192lbs (32) Out for Season*

First glance, the bullpen shows great depth with a number of arms returning that have thrived in Alan Dunn's program. Because of the great number of arms I'm not going to go into great great depth on each but rather highlight what each player does well and how they may fit into the bullpen this upcoming year.

Caleb Gilbert is going to be the wildcard here and I mean that in a good way. Gilbert as a true freshman a season ago was an arm that greatly impressed Mainieri, enough so he started the season at closer and while that didn't last Caleb was the fourth most used reliever where he showed flashes of greatness including the SEC tournament against Florida. Caleb is a power arm he sits 91-93mph where he can flash a higher number at times, his slider is a plus pitch and one of the best on the team. He has the ability to get swings and misses but his fallback is control where he seems to want to put himself into jams. IF Caleb eliminates the walks he becomes one of LSU's best bullpen arms and may be the first guy out the pen during SEC games. To expand on that point if Hess or Walker don't command the Sunday spot Gilbert would slide into that role.

Doug Norman will be another valuable arm and is a seasoned veteran who will provide quality innings out of the pen. With a long build Doug's more of a deceptive pitcher during his delivery, he'll sit 90-91mph typically with a slightly above average slider and average curveball. Norman at times was used in spot relief to get 2-3 guys out in a jam and could see that role this year. Doug pitches mostly to contact and when he's hitting his spots it induces ground balls more times than not.

Austin Bain is an inning eater to me. You give him the ball in relief and he gets outs for you no matter if you're down 5 or up by 2. Austin has a great fastball and arm strength that can range anywhere 90-94mph depending on how loose he is. While his production went down last year in terms of innings I think it was the depth LSU had on the mound. Bain will pound the zone with his fastball where he sets guys up with a slightly above average curveball.

Todd Peterson is the best freshman arm of this group and was a top 200 prospect overall in the draft a season ago. With a huge build Peterson sits 92mph consistently where he'll go higher at times, both his curve ball and change up need a bit of work, nothing major. Besides Zach Hess, Todd has the ability to be a front line starter in the SEC one day and I'm interested to see if he becomes the #2 Weekday starter because he'll need innings if he's to be groomed as a rotational pitcher.

Cole McKay is the unknown right now. As the top pitcher of last years recruiting class Cole never found command of any of his pitches with consistency. It was evident Mainieri didn't trust him for more than 1-2 inning stints with the amount of walks. Still in Cole you're getting another big bodied power arm who when in control has the ability to overpower batters. It's vital that Dunn gets McKay on track this year, his arm will be needed and especially for 2018. His ceiling is a Friday-Saturday night starter but right now he's watching pitchers from the bullpen.

Blair Frederick is a guy I'm expecting big things from in the pen during his career. While only 6'0 from the left side he's a true athlete and a guy who mixes and matches his fastball and slider which will get swings and misses. There is a learning curve and because of this he'll start out in midweek games like Mainieri typically does. Look for one of Frederick or Bush to become the situational left hander in middle relief.

Colin Strall is a side winder that will be used in situational pieces to get one to two guys out from the right side as well as midweek games.

Will Reese is a pitcher I'm very intrigued by, he's a guy that matured a tad later than other prospects and LSU got in on him just a season ago. At 6'4 Will sits 89-92mph and has a very projectable body. Look for him to get a lot of innings during the mid week games this year as he gets his feet wet for bigger opportunities in 2018. He has the potential to be a Sunday starter in a year or two.

Nick Bush is a talented left handed pitcher who has battled injuries over the past year. Make no mistake he'll be brought back slowly and will probably end up in situational type appearances. Has an above average slider from the left side and keeps the ball low from the left side, will be an interesting piece in the pen going into postseason.

Matthew Beck right now is a bit of a project and raw in terms of his off speed pitches. He has a very big frame and that's great news for Alan Dunn who will start to add weight to him and add velocity to his fastball, for now still a project.

Russell Reynolds has had many ups and downs during his long career at LSU. As mostly a contact pitcher he's not going to wow you in the box score, but his slider is above average and in most cases he gets bad swings at the plate. I have Russell as a 7-8 inning type guy, it's to early to tell if he's going to be the true setup guy but I like him at the end of the bullpen to bridge the gap to Newman.

Hunter Kiel is the top JUCO recruit who enters campus with an absolute electric arm who throws gas. His fastball is 94-95mph when in live play, it tends to remain flat at times which is where he gets in trouble, when he controls his slider and change up that's when Kiel becomes a devastating presence from the mound and an ideal 1 inning setup type arm.

Hunter Newman is back for his final season at LSU. He began as a starter, hurt his arm, and found himself at the back end of the bullpen which was great luck as he turned into a real sparkplug at the back end of the bullpen. Newman will begin the season as the closer and shows a real poise about him at all times. Newman does not have the electric arm that others around him posses he's effective because he locates his pitches at all time and can throw an above average 12-6 curve ball at any count. Hitters haven't figured out his off speed pitches with effectiveness and because he's only facing a batter once it's typically all he needs. Newman will be the anchor to the pen and where he goes so will the Tigers during June.
This post was edited on 2/9/17 at 10:33 am
Posted by sta4ever
The Pit
Member since Aug 2014
15582 posts
Posted on 2/8/17 at 12:24 pm to
I really like how much Poche developed in the second half of the season last year. He seemed to struggle his sophomore year and the beginning of last year but turned out to be a really good pitcher. As long as he doesn't leave pitches in the zone and pitches to the corners and low parts of the zone he should be very effective and if Lange does what Lange is capable to do we should be able to win series very easily. If we develop a 3rd and a 4th pitcher like with Hess, Walker, or Peterson, this will be a very good and special team and we should be able to win the SEC tourney and have a deep run in Omaha. Looks like this should be a very great year for the Tigers and I can't wait for the season to start and as always thanks for doing these previews Adam4848! GEAUX TIGERS!
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