re: Heat just beat the Warriors

quote:

---

Alright I'll play. Without divulging your nuts and bolts of the operation what is your general methodology and what gives you the confidence you can beat the books?

---

Based on comparing my numbers to posted lines, I use a hybrid dynamic home/road advantage adjustment. Books use a national average home/road advantage. What this means is that my system calculates home advantage based on how the individual team plays at home or on the road. Books calculate home advantage using one national one size fits all average. This favors me because some teams play better on the road than at home(San Antonio) where while others play worse at home than on the road(Orlando) then you have teams that are absolute shite tier on the road(Washington) to where using a national average road disadvantage adjustment does not accurately reflect how bad they are at home

Also from my observations books calculate lines based on 3 factors - ORtg, DRtg, and Pace. Which is a good way to get into the ballpark, but my system takes in more factors, specifically rebounding, free throw attempt frequency and 2P/3P splits