quote:
How did you simulate the games? I would like to know because I have been studying a little bit about money line betting and implied odds but I don't have a way of determining an alternate value to determine whether the line is off or not.

Its pretty complex. I use a big grand excel macro

I take all the team/opponent stats from stats.nba.com, use excel formulas convert them into advanced stats and also calculate national averages. I also take each teams/opponents stats based on home/road splits so I can calculate national home advantages as well as team home/road adjustments

Then I take each team's game by game stat log from basketball reference and adjust each team's stats from each game based on opponent strength and location. I also weight more recent games(the most recent game will have 4x the weight of the 1st game, though I am considering giving recent games even more weight than that)

For the simulation itself I calculate the expected tempo of the game, then use each team's season long adjusted stats to calculate expectancy. I.E. what % of possessions they will shoot a 2 point field goal(as well as allow a 2 point field goal attempt on defense), what % of possessions they will foul, what % of possessions they will turn the ball over, what their foul-to-free throw ratio is, offensive rebound %, and so on

I use 3 main calculated expectancy percentages in my simulation - 2PA%, 3PA%, and TO% which combined = 1. Independent of that is Foul % which is the 4th expectancy, but the foul check is done before the expectancy check

Then I run a loop in an excel macro and run the simulation until the amount of possessions exceeds the expected game tempo, at that point the "game" is over. I simulate the game 1000 times to eliminate outliers