- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Megyn Kelly has severly damaged her career
Posted on 11/23/16 at 1:45 pm to RobbBobb
Posted on 11/23/16 at 1:45 pm to RobbBobb
quote:No, his model reasonable predicted the outcomes. And it's not just about choosing the states, it's about how close a state is. For example, predicting a candidate has a 45% chance to win a state and the candidates ends up winning by a slim margin is a lot more reasonable than giving that candidate a 10% chance.
Nate gets every state right for Obama, and he is a god.
quote:Since you didn't provide much, if any, basis for your prediction then it is a random guess. Correctly picking the underdog horse because it has cool name that happens to win a race, doesn't make that pick somehow more informed.
and its just a lucky guess. And I never recanted.
quote:I don't know. Wishful thinking that ends up right, doesn't make it any less wishful.
How is it that I just happened to nail every state (except VA),
quote:Except they weren't "safe" those were close states. If you said Trump has a 55% chance of winning each of those states, that would be more reasonable than saying he had a 95% chance given the slim margins..
If you throw out the push pollsters, look at the demos targeted, compare that to 2004, and add in the energy factor, it was a pretty safe call.
Popular
Back to top
![logo](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/images/layout/TDIcon.jpg)