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re: Megyn Kelly has severly damaged her career

Posted on 11/23/16 at 1:45 pm to
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35251 posts
Posted on 11/23/16 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

Nate gets every state right for Obama, and he is a god.
No, his model reasonable predicted the outcomes. And it's not just about choosing the states, it's about how close a state is. For example, predicting a candidate has a 45% chance to win a state and the candidates ends up winning by a slim margin is a lot more reasonable than giving that candidate a 10% chance.
quote:

and its just a lucky guess. And I never recanted.
Since you didn't provide much, if any, basis for your prediction then it is a random guess. Correctly picking the underdog horse because it has cool name that happens to win a race, doesn't make that pick somehow more informed.
quote:

How is it that I just happened to nail every state (except VA),
I don't know. Wishful thinking that ends up right, doesn't make it any less wishful.
quote:

If you throw out the push pollsters, look at the demos targeted, compare that to 2004, and add in the energy factor, it was a pretty safe call.
Except they weren't "safe" those were close states. If you said Trump has a 55% chance of winning each of those states, that would be more reasonable than saying he had a 95% chance given the slim margins..
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