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OFFICIAL: Swing county TURNOUT Tracking thread
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:23 am
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:23 am
FL already has a good thread going for several counties, so keep Florida in Florida.
Other major ones (taken from Fox), if enterprising young/old rantards want to assist with links etc. (NOTE: Pennsylvania has TAKEN THEIR ELECTIONS SITES DOWN until 8pm ET tonight)
Merrimack County, New Hampshire - Merrimack County is slightly north of Manchester and what is increasingly becoming part of the greater Boston suburbs. It is the third most populous county in the state that, similar to the state overall, is trending more Democratic. In 2000, Al Gore won this county by a single point, but in 2004 John Kerry won here by 5 points, and President Obama won this county by double-digits in 2008 and 2012.
Northampton County, Pennsylvania - Northampton County is located just north of Bucks County in the Philadelphia exurbs. Bethlehem Steel closed in 2003 and shattered the already feeble local economy. Democratic nominees won the county by 6 points in 2000 and just 1 point in 2004. In 2008, Obama won the county by 12 points in 2008 and 5 points in 2012. If Trump is really going to flip Pennsylvania, he’ll do it with the help of lots of voters here.
Washoe County, Nevada - The biggest little swing county in the world! Washoe, home to Reno, is the second most populous county in the state. That’s in part due to the gambling and resort scene around Lake Tahoe but also a Hispanic population of about 22 percent and rising. Voters here went big for Bush in 2000, giving him a win by about 10 points but only 4 points four years later. Washoe was the same for Obama who won the county by 12 points but only 4 points in 2012. Fickle much? TURNOUT TRACKER
Jefferson County, Colorado - The county seat of Golden is home to Coors Brewing Company and the Colorado School of Mines, this county was one of the most dramatic political shifts between 2004 and 2008. Bush won this county by about 8 points in both 2000 and 2004, but Obama won here by 9 points in 2008. Although the gap narrowed slightly in 2012, Obama did win again by 5 points, showing that these voters are choosy about who they pick.
Saginaw County, Michigan - Saginaw County is part of the Great Lakes Bay Area near Midland and Bay City. Located less than an hour north of Flint, Mich., this county experienced a major depopulation between 2000 and 2012. Similar to its metro area, this county has large black population – about 19 percent – but is also home to a lot of working class older white voters. Obama won big here in 2008 and 2012, but these are the kinds of places where Trump hopes to see the tide turn. Election turnout report (currently unavailable)
Caswell County, North Carolina - This former mill town on the Virginia state line is a perfect reflection of North Carolina’s shifting political trends. Romney won here by 2 points in 2012, Obama won by 3 points in 2008, Bush won by 4 points in 2004, and by 2 points in 2000. With a substantial African American population and lots of blue-collar white voters, this was once a Democratic bastion where Trump needs a big swing in his favor.
Sandusky County, Ohio - Sandusky on the shore of Lake Erie between Toledo and Cleveland looks a lot like the rest of northern Ohio: overwhelmingly white, lots of older voters and decades of economic disruption in the rearview mirror. One of the reasons Trump is doing so well in the state is that counties like this one went against type in 2008 and 2012 to back Obama and now are returning to their GOP roots. Bush won here by 12 points in 2004 and 10 points in 2000.
Cedar County, Iowa - Located between Cedar Rapids to the west and the Quad Cities to the east, Cedar County reflects the mix of industry and agriculture common to that part of the state. The birthplace of Iowa’s only president, Herbert Hoover, the county has usually had more of a Democratic lean. But in 2000, Al Gore won by only 2 votes and George W. Bush won the county by one percentage point in 2004. That trend ended in 2008 when Obama won by 10 points in 2008 and by 5 points in 2012.
Dunn County, Wisconsin - Got milk? Dunn County and its major city, Menomonie, is right in the heart of America’s Dairyland. Out on the Minnesota border and only an hour from the Twin Cities, the voters here have traditionally been stalwart prairie populists of Democratic-Farmer-Labor variety. But there are ways in for the GOP. Other than a blowout for Obama in 2008, Democratic margins are usually small here. If Trump really is the Republican William Jennings Bryan, then he would be able to rock and roll with the folks in western Wisconsin.
Other major ones (taken from Fox), if enterprising young/old rantards want to assist with links etc. (NOTE: Pennsylvania has TAKEN THEIR ELECTIONS SITES DOWN until 8pm ET tonight)
Merrimack County, New Hampshire - Merrimack County is slightly north of Manchester and what is increasingly becoming part of the greater Boston suburbs. It is the third most populous county in the state that, similar to the state overall, is trending more Democratic. In 2000, Al Gore won this county by a single point, but in 2004 John Kerry won here by 5 points, and President Obama won this county by double-digits in 2008 and 2012.
Northampton County, Pennsylvania - Northampton County is located just north of Bucks County in the Philadelphia exurbs. Bethlehem Steel closed in 2003 and shattered the already feeble local economy. Democratic nominees won the county by 6 points in 2000 and just 1 point in 2004. In 2008, Obama won the county by 12 points in 2008 and 5 points in 2012. If Trump is really going to flip Pennsylvania, he’ll do it with the help of lots of voters here.
Washoe County, Nevada - The biggest little swing county in the world! Washoe, home to Reno, is the second most populous county in the state. That’s in part due to the gambling and resort scene around Lake Tahoe but also a Hispanic population of about 22 percent and rising. Voters here went big for Bush in 2000, giving him a win by about 10 points but only 4 points four years later. Washoe was the same for Obama who won the county by 12 points but only 4 points in 2012. Fickle much? TURNOUT TRACKER
Jefferson County, Colorado - The county seat of Golden is home to Coors Brewing Company and the Colorado School of Mines, this county was one of the most dramatic political shifts between 2004 and 2008. Bush won this county by about 8 points in both 2000 and 2004, but Obama won here by 9 points in 2008. Although the gap narrowed slightly in 2012, Obama did win again by 5 points, showing that these voters are choosy about who they pick.
Saginaw County, Michigan - Saginaw County is part of the Great Lakes Bay Area near Midland and Bay City. Located less than an hour north of Flint, Mich., this county experienced a major depopulation between 2000 and 2012. Similar to its metro area, this county has large black population – about 19 percent – but is also home to a lot of working class older white voters. Obama won big here in 2008 and 2012, but these are the kinds of places where Trump hopes to see the tide turn. Election turnout report (currently unavailable)
Caswell County, North Carolina - This former mill town on the Virginia state line is a perfect reflection of North Carolina’s shifting political trends. Romney won here by 2 points in 2012, Obama won by 3 points in 2008, Bush won by 4 points in 2004, and by 2 points in 2000. With a substantial African American population and lots of blue-collar white voters, this was once a Democratic bastion where Trump needs a big swing in his favor.
Sandusky County, Ohio - Sandusky on the shore of Lake Erie between Toledo and Cleveland looks a lot like the rest of northern Ohio: overwhelmingly white, lots of older voters and decades of economic disruption in the rearview mirror. One of the reasons Trump is doing so well in the state is that counties like this one went against type in 2008 and 2012 to back Obama and now are returning to their GOP roots. Bush won here by 12 points in 2004 and 10 points in 2000.
Cedar County, Iowa - Located between Cedar Rapids to the west and the Quad Cities to the east, Cedar County reflects the mix of industry and agriculture common to that part of the state. The birthplace of Iowa’s only president, Herbert Hoover, the county has usually had more of a Democratic lean. But in 2000, Al Gore won by only 2 votes and George W. Bush won the county by one percentage point in 2004. That trend ended in 2008 when Obama won by 10 points in 2008 and by 5 points in 2012.
Dunn County, Wisconsin - Got milk? Dunn County and its major city, Menomonie, is right in the heart of America’s Dairyland. Out on the Minnesota border and only an hour from the Twin Cities, the voters here have traditionally been stalwart prairie populists of Democratic-Farmer-Labor variety. But there are ways in for the GOP. Other than a blowout for Obama in 2008, Democratic margins are usually small here. If Trump really is the Republican William Jennings Bryan, then he would be able to rock and roll with the folks in western Wisconsin.
This post was edited on 11/8/16 at 10:35 am
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:29 am to cokebottleag
TRUMP wins every swing county bigly, liberal tears ensue.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:30 am to cokebottleag
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:32 am to cokebottleag
All the counties I've looked at besides the Florida ones aren't posting results until the polls close. Anyone else have better luck?
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:32 am to TigahJay
Only found NV so far. Will keep looking.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:39 am to cokebottleag
Those Nevada numbers sure do look good... D+200 after early voting...
Posted on 11/8/16 at 4:58 pm to WhistlinDixie15
Keep this going!!!!!!
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