re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

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From another site:

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The difference between the GFS / Euro track up coast of Florida and the Canadian / UKMET track is an upper level low that's supposed to move in near the Carolinas. The GFS / Euro have 99L being dragged northward by this ULL, the UKMET and CMC do not interact with it at all. Considering the consistency of the GFS on this track and intensity (and the Euro's general agreement on track) it makes sense to bet on a more eastward track.


How do you feel about this statement and the chances that the GFS and Euro are actually getting this right?

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I posted this image earlier this morning concerning this:



It doesn't show up in the freely available data but the ULL in question originates from an upper through off the NE. It then drifts to the SW and ends up over Coastal Carolina. That process helps to develop a weakness in the ridge - red circle. I've mentioned before that the upper level setup for this period is very complicated and the models still struggle with the movement and strength of upper level features.

Bay also chimed in and mentioned that a center relocation or consolidation of the NE of what the models are showing could also get the system into that area.