re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

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What's the best guess on when the Florida Panhandle will be clear of this? Have a beach trip Labor Day weekend and might try to move things if we will just be sitting in rain or a hurricane.

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Outlook for 99L this weekend and beyond
The 00Z Friday ensemble of the GFS and ECMWF are in general agreement that 99L will continue moving west-northwest on a track that would put it somewhere in or near the Florida Keys around Sunday. None of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members bring 99L up to tropical storm strength before that point, while the HWRF--overall the best-performing intensity model of recent years--is an outlier, calling for 99L to reach tropical storm strength by Sunday. If 99L does organize today, we'll be looking closely at the next couple of rounds of models to see if any major changes occur. In any event, this morning’s burst of convection reminds us that 99L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to southern Florida over the weekend.

There remains plenty of uncertainty over 99L’s future beyond the weekend. The operational GFS and ECMWF model runs from 0Z Friday take 99L northward through the eastern Gulf and into the upper Gulf Coast of Florida. A minority of GFS ensemble members bring 99L further west, while the four ECMWF ensemble members that make up the “high probability cluster” (those that have performed the best on 99L over the last 24 hours) keep the system moving northward, very close to Florida’s west coast, as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. The HWRF and UKMET are more aggressive on intensifying 99L further west in the open Gulf, where there would be less interaction with land. We can expect models to get a better handle on 99L if and when it develops a coherent circulation.

The bottom line: 99L remains a system well worth monitoring as it makes its way into south Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

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