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re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda

Posted on 8/19/16 at 7:42 am to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19847 posts
Posted on 8/19/16 at 7:42 am to
99L continues the westward trek across the MDR



At this time, there doesn't appear to be much support for the model solutions that show it becoming a strong hurricane as it moves towards the US. There are a number of reasons to not buy these solutions at this time, including the MJO. The current MJO forecast is pretty unfavorable for the Atlantic.



Phase 6 & 7 are among the least favorable phases for the Atlantic. This is just one metric but I would still be skeptical of any model hype out there showing a major hurricane.
Posted by Titus Pullo
MTDGA
Member since Feb 2011
28567 posts
Posted on 8/19/16 at 7:45 am to
Anytime I read these posts I always do it in my head in that robot voice from that weather channel (but not The Weather Channel) on TV.

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19847 posts
Posted on 8/19/16 at 8:15 am to
Other reasons to remain skeptical of any individual model runs showing a US threat, until the system forms the models always struggle with future track and the models get even less accurate as you move out in time.

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