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re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda
Posted on 8/19/16 at 7:42 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/19/16 at 7:42 am to rds dc
99L continues the westward trek across the MDR
At this time, there doesn't appear to be much support for the model solutions that show it becoming a strong hurricane as it moves towards the US. There are a number of reasons to not buy these solutions at this time, including the MJO. The current MJO forecast is pretty unfavorable for the Atlantic.
Phase 6 & 7 are among the least favorable phases for the Atlantic. This is just one metric but I would still be skeptical of any model hype out there showing a major hurricane.
![](https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif)
At this time, there doesn't appear to be much support for the model solutions that show it becoming a strong hurricane as it moves towards the US. There are a number of reasons to not buy these solutions at this time, including the MJO. The current MJO forecast is pretty unfavorable for the Atlantic.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqOL2NdVUAA2Lf-.jpg)
Phase 6 & 7 are among the least favorable phases for the Atlantic. This is just one metric but I would still be skeptical of any model hype out there showing a major hurricane.
Posted on 8/19/16 at 7:45 am to rds dc
Anytime I read these posts I always do it in my head in that robot voice from that weather channel (but not The Weather Channel) on TV.
Posted on 8/19/16 at 8:15 am to rds dc
Other reasons to remain skeptical of any individual model runs showing a US threat, until the system forms the models always struggle with future track and the models get even less accurate as you move out in time.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqOR3EhW8AAiyxM.jpg)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqOR3EhW8AAiyxM.jpg)
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