- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:31 am to drockw1
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:31 am to drockw1
quote:
Obviously would be catastrophic, but do you or anyone see an slight NE movement at the very end of that projection?
Oh definitely, I'm not saying this will be another Katrina lol. Just comparing this one model run to it's "predicted track". Basically, don't pay attention to where it goes exactly, pay more attention to the trend that there will be a strong ridge in place pushing this thing in the gulf.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:40 am to GEAUXmedic
Ok great...Well said...the catastrophic part is more for BR/Laffy, they don't need another drop of rain. NOLA doesn't want it, but damn give BR & Laffy a break.
And no one needs anything in the gulf in late August/early Sept...
And no one needs anything in the gulf in late August/early Sept...
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:00 am to deuce985
No shite. After homes that are/were flooded definitely don't need this. For the homes getting gutted right now or just emptying the contents of their homes will be complete devastation to the parishes hit. Going to get supplies to rebuild and also supplies that are necessities are already difficult to find. Now imagine a hurricane or TS- everyone will be trying to get to the store, get gas, Home Depot, etc. Like WTF Mother Nature? You trying to wipe LA off the map???? Guess if you didn't prep or evacuate for the flood it'd be best to get ready incase this storm heads our way, Crap.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:25 am to drockw1
This is from Dr. Master's blog in Wunderground regarding the recent rain fall in BR
quote:
Baton Rouge has its wettest month in 174 years of recordkeeping
The astounding rains that led to catastrophic flooding in Louisiana led to a phenomenal monthly rainfall total in Baton Rouge, where formal weather observations began quite early, in 1843.
As of Sunday, the August rainfall total in Baton Rouge was 26.97”, which crushes the previous record of 23.73” (May 1907), according to WU weather historian Christopher Burt. This monthly total includes 0.76” on Sunday and a total of 6.08” since August 14, when the rains directly associated with the flood-making upper low had already ceased.
For the summer since June 1, Baton Rouge has picked up an amazing 40.95”--more rain in three months than downtown Los Angeles has recorded over the last five years (38.79”)!
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 3:26 am
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:30 am to TypoKnig
For such a great community that has banded together in a beautiful way...I'm worried about what could be next.
Sorry about the impending presidential traffic that will restrict supplies from getting to where they need to go...what an inconsiderate terd.
Sorry about the impending presidential traffic that will restrict supplies from getting to where they need to go...what an inconsiderate terd.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:36 am to drockw1
Wait, we were mad when he didn't come right away, and we're mad that he's coming now. Gotta love the OT.
Back to the subject at hand, these models are giving me a queasey feeling.
Back to the subject at hand, these models are giving me a queasey feeling.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:37 am to drockw1
And that's not to say this storm will form into anything, or even make it into the gulf. That's just the way it's beginning to appear.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:49 am to GEAUXmedic
At this rate, it should be making its way into the gulf over the weekend although it's forecasted to slow down. Between the recent floods and the now famous hurricane day of August 29th, seeing a hurricane knocking on the door is the last thing Louisianians want to see.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:51 am to Jim Rockford
Jim, I'm just saying the timing is off.
No one nationally gave a shite for a whole damn week.
As with the OT, I drop my politics at the door, but if this happened in another US city, he'd have been here sooner.
ETA: But more importantly...lets keep a damn close eye on this storm
No one nationally gave a shite for a whole damn week.
As with the OT, I drop my politics at the door, but if this happened in another US city, he'd have been here sooner.
ETA: But more importantly...lets keep a damn close eye on this storm
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 3:53 am
Posted on 8/23/16 at 4:46 am to GEAUXmedic
Yeah, nice burst of convection from 99L this morning..coming as Gaston looks like shite on enhanced IR.
99L has yet to show a closed circulation on satellite winds, but there's another pass coming in a few hours, and of course there's recon scheduled to leave in about 6 hours.
Also the second straight model run of the ECMWF is putting 99L into the Gulf, which is the first time there's been any run-to-run consistency on either of the major global models. GFS is wildly different but it has yet to show any sort of consistency at all.
99L has yet to show a closed circulation on satellite winds, but there's another pass coming in a few hours, and of course there's recon scheduled to leave in about 6 hours.
Also the second straight model run of the ECMWF is putting 99L into the Gulf, which is the first time there's been any run-to-run consistency on either of the major global models. GFS is wildly different but it has yet to show any sort of consistency at all.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 4:53 am
Posted on 8/23/16 at 4:48 am to baytiger
quote:
GFS is wildly different but it has yet to show any sort of consistency at all.
06z GFS is rolling now, and is consistently shite for the 3rd run in a row.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 4:55 am to GEAUXmedic
I've got the GFS out to 84 hours right now and I don't see anything egregious yet. if it makes another hard right at the Bahamas though...
Posted on 8/23/16 at 4:57 am to baytiger
As usual when the GFS doesn't have a storm to initialize with, it lacks in intensity.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:00 am to GEAUXmedic
ECMWF doesn't intensify until 96 hours either. They're both consistent with it not having a closed circulation yet.
That being said, the area over the bahamas looks pretty prime for development. I think it should develop a bit faster than either model anticipates.
That being said, the area over the bahamas looks pretty prime for development. I think it should develop a bit faster than either model anticipates.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 5:11 am
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:23 am to baytiger
GFS can be thrown out once again. Fiona takes the spotlight and 99L basically disappears. There is no way 99L makes it to the Bahamas and doesn't intensify.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:34 am to GEAUXmedic
Keep in mind that models are meant to be used as guidance and not actual forecasts
but the GFS does keep the wave together over Florida and hints at a possible depression southwest of the bend. It's closer to the ECMWF than it appears at first glance. Don't throw it out entirely.. there's some cause for concern.
but the GFS does keep the wave together over Florida and hints at a possible depression southwest of the bend. It's closer to the ECMWF than it appears at first glance. Don't throw it out entirely.. there's some cause for concern.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 5:37 am to baytiger
The way I see it, is that the GFS is missing something. Also it is initializing too far south IMO. At least it's on board with a stronger ridge.
and by the way...
That's not 99L, that's Fiona eating 99L and moving into the GOM.
and by the way...
quote:
but the GFS does keep the wave together over Florida and hints at a possible depression southwest of the bend.
That's not 99L, that's Fiona eating 99L and moving into the GOM.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 5:40 am
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News