re: College Football Week 1/Futures Bet Thread

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What should i be looking at to tell the % that iy will cover?

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I would look at the "Combined Variable ROI Percentages" in Columns S-X.

CC = ROI on covering the line.
C6 = ROI on covering a 6pt teaser, etc.

ROI is not a %chance of covering but how much of a return one would expect the bet to have based on the output of my data. The highest CC% is BYU +1.5 at 21.0%. Meaning if you made the bet an infinite number of times, you would expect a return of 21%. This doesn't mean it is a lock, or it has a great chance of winning, just that my system interprets it as a profitable bet based on the criteria given.

ROI is calculated on Cover % - Breakeven %. So if my system gives a play a 50% chance of covering, the ROI is 50% - 52.4% = -2.4% ROI. If my system gives a play a 80% chance of covering a 13 point teaser, the ROI is 80% ^ 4 - 54.5% = .4096 - .545 = -13.5% ROI.

There are plenty of instances of a bet being profitable on the cover side, but not on the teaser side, and vice versa.