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re: Does LSU get inflated ratings because it's LSU?

Posted on 6/14/16 at 10:32 am to
Posted by studentsect
Member since Jan 2004
2271 posts
Posted on 6/14/16 at 10:32 am to
quote:

Was LSU really a top 8 team? I'm thinking they got the Super because they are.. LSU.



In LSU's last 4 games they had 42 hits to 36 opponent hits, outhit the opponent in 3 of 4 games, and were only outhit by 1 in the other. They went 1-3.

The team with the most hits wins most of the time, and teams should expect to be 50-50 in games where the team with fewer hits wins, so probably "should have" gone 3-1 or at least 2-2.

Over the course of a season, these things average out; LSU had a stretch against the Mississippi schools where they probably "should have" been 4-2 but instead were 2-4, then followed it up with an 11 game win streak where they probably "should have" been roughly 8-3.

Unfortunately, postseason baseball doesn't allow time for these types of corrections for the losing team, but Coastal Carolina certainly shouldn't expect to keep winning games where they commit 3 errors and give up 10 hits.
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