quote:
“I worry that Apple is in the same situation, in that the sequence of extraordinary products has been disruptive relative to the traditional competitors in the marketplace, but relative to Apple’s business model, they have not been disruptive to Apple. So they haven’t seen this problem before. I worry that maybe they have not learned to recognize what’s been happening, because they haven’t seen this kind of problem before.“

From Forbes May 7, 2012 LINK

Stock has returned ~25% since then including dividends.

ETA: in the quote he was comparing AAPL to Sony when Napster disrupted Sony's CD revenue market.

This post was edited on 4/27/16 at 9:10 am

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Posted by Ole War Skule

North Shore

Member since Sep 2003

3409 posts

Posted on 4/27/16 at 9:22 am to Shepherd88

quote:
Stock has returned ~25% since then including dividends.

"Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results"

...and I was buying in 2012, but the Apple world was very, very different then. As my earlier graph showed, they were still growing. They no longer are. I am in no way saying the company is 'dead', but they are nowhere close to the growth machine they were 4-10 years ago.

I'm not bashing the company or stock, I just don't believe there is as much potential for growth as there is for stagnation.

* products are only average now, nothing 'special'
* people are tired of forking out $600 every 2 years
* watch not doing much
* no innovation in a decade
* western markets somewhat saturated, certainly much more so than in 12
* China sales plummeting with much more serious competition coming

I 'want' to find a reason to buy, so if you've got some specific reasons why the sales decline/stagnation will not continue, I'm all ears.

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