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re: Is there going to be another retraction in oil prices?
Posted on 3/19/16 at 2:53 am to Omada
Posted on 3/19/16 at 2:53 am to Omada
Agre with all of the above except for
I feel fairly confident in stating that as Iran's production comes back into the daylight we will see Iraq's "record" production come back down.
Draw your own conclusions.
quote:
3. Iran is still working on getting their production up to pre-sanction levels
I feel fairly confident in stating that as Iran's production comes back into the daylight we will see Iraq's "record" production come back down.
Draw your own conclusions.
This post was edited on 3/19/16 at 2:54 am
Posted on 3/19/16 at 9:33 am to cave canem
quote:Respectfully, I disagree. Although it is possible that some of their production is due to Iranian oil, I think the facts point elsewhere.
I feel fairly confident in stating that as Iran's production comes back into the daylight we will see Iraq's "record" production come back down.
Iraq had auctioned off many fields in 2009-2013 to outside oil companies.* Since production projects typically take months or years to get online, this could explain why Iraqi oil production has increased since that time. Iraq, like many other OPEC countries, is dependent on oil for government revenues, and so production may have been increased to keep the budget stable once oil prices started to fall. Also, that budget has to include money to fight a war with ISIS, pushing production higher. And, like Saudi Arabia did, Iraq probably tried to lock down as many customers as possible before the Iranian sanctions were lifted (because as much as OPEC is a cartel, every member puts itself before the others).
It's also worth noting that the sanctions on Iran were not global but were mainly imposed by the US and the EU. Iran was still able to produce and sell oil, just not to the major developed countries mentioned, which hurt their revenues and caused a production decline since those customers were inaccessible. On the other hand, relations between Iraq and Iran have warmed since the end of the Saddam Hussein regime, so perhaps some of the oil Iraq sold came from Iran. This wouldn't fully explain Iraq's production increasing from 2.5 million bpd at the start of 2012 to 4.5 million bpd today, however.
*Coincidentally, Exxon and Occidental are the only US companies with contracts in Iraq. In fact, China and India buy 25% and 20% of Iraq's oil production, respectively, while the US buys 15%.. So much for the ridiculous "America went to war in Iraq for oil" argument that has been floating around for more than a decade.
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