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re: Stealing third with no outs.
Posted on 2/21/16 at 7:47 pm to CottonWasKing
Posted on 2/21/16 at 7:47 pm to CottonWasKing
quote:
I don't consider attempting to steal third with no outs as aggression. With one out? Sure that's aggression. With no outs? That's idiocy. The rewards don't outweigh the risks. Especially in a close game like Friday
I'm not sure of the situations as I wasn't able to watch the games this weekend, but there has been a shift in MLB against some of the conventional wisdom on the base paths and it may be making its way into the college game as well. Stealing 3rd on a left handed pitcher is fairly easy, and stealing 3rd with no outs or two outs is actually much more efficient than stealing with 1 out.
Additionally, the expected run value in MLB and the general success rate on stealing 3rd base (about 72%) would suggest you should steal 3rd base with no outs.
ETA: I was using some skewed Expected Run Value numbers. If you have a success rate of stealing third that is higher than 78%, you should steal 3rd with no outs. That isn't outrageous considering the MLB average is 72%.
This post was edited on 2/21/16 at 8:00 pm
Posted on 2/21/16 at 9:57 pm to slackster
quote:
Additionally, the expected run value in MLB and the general success rate on stealing 3rd base
sorry, there is no way in hell stealing third is successful 72% of the time. in college for sure. that's unmitigated bull shite.
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