For number crunchers...LSU projections for 2016 (and other noteworthy teams)

I know...... It's just something to look at between seasons. The guy looks like he might be on to something with his stats from prior years (Captain Obvious, but he's crunching numbers for backup). Not saying LSU will be #1, but it should go without saying they'll be vastly improved. (Projected 5.0 PPG more on offense and 4.4 PPG less on defense - 9.4PPG swing - then add in the Aranda factor on D)

LINK

Article notes: (Posting this from a phone, sorry but I can't change the format - link is formatted in a spread sheet and easier to view). Feel free to update in the post.

My goal was to begin compiling "percentage returning" data for every level of an offense and defense -- passing yards/attempts/completions, rushing attempts/yards, receiving targets/receptions/yards, offensive line starts (because that's all we have), and tackles/TFLs/pass breakups at each level of the defense.

Once I had this, I could tinker to see how much each category affects a team's offensive or defensive improvement. In theory, this could allow me to create a "percentage of offense/defense returning" figure that could dwarf the effectiveness of just data on returning starters.

With just one year at my disposal (2014) when I wrote the original post, I wasn't able to draw any lasting conclusions, but the potential was obvious. I put together a rough formula that posited that teams like North Carolina (87 percent of production returning), Ohio (85 percent), and Temple (83 percent) were among the most experienced in the country, then watched as those teams improved from a combined 18-19 to a combined 29-12. (Others near the top didn't improve nearly that much.)

Meanwhile, the five that returned less than 40 percent of their production -- Kansas, UTEP, Wyoming, UCF, and UL-Lafayette -- fell from a combined 32-31 to 11-49.

At the end of 2015, I was able to add a second year of data. I have 2013 queued up and ready to go. But the conclusions are becoming clear.

On Monday, I will post initial 2016 S&P+ projections and begin my 2016 offseason preview series. Here's the returning production data I will be using along with these recruiting rankings and other factors. The projected points per game in the table below simply refers to points on the scoreboard.


O returning Proj. O
PPG change
D returning Proj. D
PPG change Overall
returning Overall proj.
PPG change Rank

LSU 96% +5.0 88% -4.4 92% +9.4 1
UCF 99% +5.4 84% -3.6 92% +9.0 2
Syracuse 100%+5.5 80% -3.0 90% +8.5 3
Kent State 94% +4.7 83% -3.5 89% +8.2 4
Charlotte 92% +4.5 82% -3.3 87% +7.8 5
Rutgers 81% +2.9 90% -4.6 85% +7.5 6
Louisville 98% +5.2 77% -2.3 87% +7.5 7
Kansas 81% +2.9 85% -3.9 83% +6.8 8
Wake Forest 89% +4.0 79% -2.7 84% +6.7 9
Ball State 78% +2.5 87% -4.1 82% +6.6 10

Alabama 45% -2.1 66% -0.5 55% -1.6 104

BGSU 29% -4.2 62% +0.3 46% -4.5 119
Mich. State 26% -4.6 64% 0.0 45% -4.6 120
Navy 34% -3.6 56% +1.4 45% -5.0 121
Wisconsin 34% -3.6 54% +1.7 44% -5.3 122
Toledo 44% -2.2 43% +3.6 43% -5.8 123
California 15% -6.2 62% +0.2 39% -6.4 124
LA Tech 42% -2.5 37% +4.7 39% -7.2 125
Arizona State 27% -4.5 43% +3.7 35% -8.2 126
Ohio State 22% -5.2 36% +4.7 29% -9.9 127
UMass 15% -6.3 34% +5.2 24% -11.5 128


Basically, the numbers show a true percentage of actual playmakers returning and what the data has shown in the past to mean as far as PPG differential from the prior season. It's only a projection.

Here's what the data shows for all SEC teams for the upcoming year's projection in relation to the performance of the team in 2015.

Team/ Pt Dif./ Nat.Rank
LSU. +9.4 1
Tenn. +5.9 12
Georgia +4.4 29
Missouri +3.9 8 35
Vandy +3.3 40
A & M +3.3 67
Arkansas +1.3 73
S. Car. +0.2 81
Ole Miss. +0.2 83
Auburn +0.1 85
Kentucky -0.2 90
Florida -0.4 94
Miss. St. -1.3 101
Alabama -1.6 104