re: Oil stocks...are you buying?

Sounds reasonable to me.

I was reading an article the other day (which I cannot find now) that was discussing whether or not the US could someday become a swing producer like OPEC now that we control so much of the supply. The general consensus pointed towards "not likely" for a couple reasons. The fragmented nature of the US industry versus a coordinated cartel was paramount, as well as your points on capital on time lags. Time will tell if shale can gain enough efficiency to change those last two elements.