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re: OFFICIAL: No winners in the powerball tonight...Wed drawing at 1.3 Billion

Posted on 1/10/16 at 10:42 am to
Posted by lsuesac
Chattanooga, TN
Member since Feb 2006
885 posts
Posted on 1/10/16 at 10:42 am to
So technically speaking some one could spend just under $600 million and buy every combination and win $1.3 billion...correct. Would that person come out ahead or behind after taxes?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85489 posts
Posted on 1/10/16 at 10:59 am to
quote:

So technically speaking some one could spend just under $600 million and buy every combination ?



Yes...

quote:

and win $1.3 billion...correct.


That is the annuity value. The lump sum projects to be $806M which is ~$438M after federal and state taxes in LA. That alone makes it a bad idea since you're still in the hole. You tack on the fact that there could be multiple winners and the numbers just get worse and worse from there.

ETA: Assuming you can deduct the losses, the $595M outlay for tickets, you have against the winnings, a single winner would actually be profitable. I worked out the math in a post a few replies below this one.
This post was edited on 1/10/16 at 11:56 am
Posted by 13SaintTiger
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
18315 posts
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:11 am to
quote:

So technically speaking some one could spend just under $600 million and buy every combination and win $1.3 billion...correct. Would that person come out ahead or behind after taxes?




I started a thread about this. Basically only a rich fool would do this
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85489 posts
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:28 am to
On somewhat of a tangent, the drawing Wednesday may be the first time the expected value of the Powerball is in your favor. For those of you who don't know, a positive expected value indicates a situation where you would expect a profit over the course of many samples. You basically take the cash value (less the purchase price of a ticket) of each Powerball prize and multiply it by the odds to win said prize. You do this for every prize, and then you do this for the odds you will NOT win a prize (-$2 X ~280,450,100 losers our of 292,201,338 possible combinations). You add up all of the products and you arrive at the expected value.

Assuming a single winner (no split jackpot) and only federal taxes (39.6%), the expected value of the Powerball will be a positive number if the cash payout is higher than $832M.

For a single winner, federal taxes, and LA state income taxes, the jackpot will have to reach nearly $924M for the expected value to be higher than $0.

Obviously a split jackpot throws a wrench in to all of this, but this may be the first time in history that the math says you SHOULD purchase a ticket.
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