re: Does UNC deserve a playoff spot if they beat Clemson?

I think this is a great debate and a lot closer than people realize right now.

As a side note, I've had a pretty solid handle on the committee since the end of last year. Correctly predicted the final field with Ohio State edging out Baylor and TCU on the board and I have nailed the Top 4 each of the last three weeks.

The committee has shown a lot of tendencies on the things they value and I really believe a UNC victory over Clemson would likely propel them into the last spot of the CFP field.

Strength of Schedule, Strength of Wins, Subjective "Eyeball" test, and the All Important Conference Championship.

This Strength of Wins metric LINK has to be very similar to the one used by the committee because I have used it as a reference throughout this year and it has been a key ingredient for teams the committee have favored.

Wins Rating
Ohio State #10, North Carolina #11

UNC would certainly shoot up the board with a win over #1 Clemson

Strength of Schedule
There are thousands of different SOS metrics out there I prefer to use TeamRankings.com as they have a current and a future SOS rating
Current
Ohio State #35 North Carolina #43
after next week it projects to be
Ohio State #36 North Carolina #32

Ohio State would get the nod for the eyeball test as they are the defending National Champions and they have the #2 average recruiting class over the last 4 seasons. Ohio State would be about a 4.5 pt favorite over North Carolina on a neutral field according to Sagarin.

UNC will already 2 of the 3 above metrics over Ohio State and what would ultimately send them over the top would be the all mighty Conference Championship, the very thing that propelled the Buckeyes into the playoffs last season would very likely be what keeps them out of this years field IF Alabama wins, with the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 Champions locking up spots in the field.


Again, I have no dog in the fight, I enjoyed debating with people down the stretch last year why Ohio State was going to make the field so I don't want the Buckeye fans to think I am picking on you. Do I think North Carolina is a better team than Ohio State? No not really, but I do feel all the factors above would leave the committee feel that the Tarheels were more deserving of a spot than Ohio State.