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Started By
Message
re: Season Record Prediction Using Mathematical Analysis of Point Spreads 2015
Posted on 8/22/15 at 8:08 pm to TheMuffinMan
Posted on 8/22/15 at 8:08 pm to TheMuffinMan
quote:
Dude he's not calculating a probability, he's calculating an expected value. The formula for that is E(X)=sum[p(x)*x] with each x being a trial. If we want the expected value of wins in 12 trials and have the associated probability of winning for each, then this equation states that we multiply the value of a win (1) by the probability of a win (.7 for instance) and add these up across all 12 trials. The loss probabilities are all multiplied by the value of a loss (0) so they all drop out. Here's a link to help you out LINK.
Unfortunately I read through the entire thread. To be fair, the OP and his defenses throughout this thread continued to use percentages and the 860% figure, hence the confusion.
The OP was right all along, but he did a terrible job of explaining his position. I'm glad you were able to put it succinctly. As I read through the 7-8 pages, I kept hoping someone had already come in and settled the debate before I got to the end.
1
Posted on 8/24/15 at 10:13 am to slackster
quote:This is a perfect zombie response.
To be fair, the OP and his defenses throughout this thread continued to use percentages and the 860% figure, hence the confusion.
Of course I used the 860% was used throughout this thread. Because the 860% is correct. It is the precise and proper result of the equation. AND of course I always correctly converted the 860% to 8.6.
The % sign does not mean "percentage chance." It merely means a fraction of 100. Thus 860% MEANS 860/100 which MEANS 8.6.
CptBengal repeatedly shite on this thread based on his unrelenting and unmitigated misunderstanding of the analysis.
quote:No, CptBengal refused to acknowledge that he was wrong. He refused to offer his own analysis.
The OP was right all along, but he did a terrible job of explaining his position.
quote:The debate was settled. It just so happened that mindless zombies kept wandering into the thread.
s I read through the 7-8 pages, I kept hoping someone had already come in and settled the debate before I got to the end.
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