re: Season Record Prediction Using Mathematical Analysis of Point Spreads 2015

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No. I'm right.

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No. Let's try this another way, what does the equation say in words:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

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When you add those probabilities up (you shouldn't btw) you end up with the probability of LSU winning ANY INDIVIDUAL game as .86
Wrong. You're not even close.

And your math is WRONG.

If the average likelihood of winning a game is 86%, t

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You summed the probabilities....when you sum the probabilities, it MEANS that you are calculating the probability of either A or B happening. i.e., the probability of either winning game A or winning game B. Therefore summing the probabilities, you have assumed that the events are mutually exclusive (they arent).

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If I think LSU is likely to win 8.6 game, then IF I were to calculate the average likelihood of winning a game it would be 71.66%. And for the record, I am NOT calculating that average.

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good god man, Why are you taking averages at this point?

This is the equation you used P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

what does P(A or B) mean...do you know?

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First, that is NOT the conclusion of my math.

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your conclusion was 8.6 games because you got a probability of 0.86.

by summing a series of probabilities. It's hilariously incorrect.

ETA: Not only did you sum the probabilities, you then left that sum as 8.6

It's insane you think this is accurate.