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Message
re: Season Record Prediction Using Mathematical Analysis of Point Spreads 2015
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:30 pm to Salviati
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:30 pm to Salviati
quote:
And when you add up those odds for the season, they indicate that LSU is likely to win 8.6 games, rounded to 9 games out of 12.
WRONG.
When you add those probabilities up (you shouldn't btw) you end up with the probability of LSU winning ANY INDIVIDUAL game as .86
That is the conclusion from your math...and as Guava pointed out, we KNOW that isnt true.
2
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:08 pm to CptBengal
quote:No. I'm right.quote:WRONG.
And when you add up those odds for the season, they indicate that LSU is likely to win 8.6 games, rounded to 9 games out of 12.
quote:Wrong. You're not even close.
When you add those probabilities up (you shouldn't btw) you end up with the probability of LSU winning ANY INDIVIDUAL game as .86
And your math is WRONG.
If the average likelihood of winning a game is 86%, then LSU would likely win 10.32 games. I NEVER said that LSU would win 10.32 games.
If I think LSU is likely to win 8.6 game, then IF I were to calculate the average likelihood of winning a game it would be 71.66%. And for the record, I am NOT calculating that average.
quote:
That is the conclusion from your math...and as Guava pointed out, we KNOW that isnt true.
First, that is NOT the conclusion of my math.
Second, I just showed you that it's not true.
That is EXACTLY your modus operandi. You state a different conclusion than what the poster stated, then you tell them their conclusion is wrong. It's call the Straw Man Fallacy.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 3:56 pm to CptBengal
With each page I read, I keep flip flopping on whether CptBengal of Gueva Jelly is stupider. Both of them are truly impressive.
AtlTiger is a wildcard candidate pending my review of his 1717 posts. Based on his evaluation of the time wasted with this analysis, I expect all 1717 of his posts to be of absolute top-notch quality.
I will add that a probability of a certain win total(12,11,10, etc) COULD be calculated. Just not by most of the clowns posting in this thread.
AtlTiger is a wildcard candidate pending my review of his 1717 posts. Based on his evaluation of the time wasted with this analysis, I expect all 1717 of his posts to be of absolute top-notch quality.
quote:
Dude he's not calculating a probability, he's calculating an expected value.
I will add that a probability of a certain win total(12,11,10, etc) COULD be calculated. Just not by most of the clowns posting in this thread.
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 4:15 pm
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