re: Season Record Prediction Using Mathematical Analysis of Point Spreads 2015

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I'll say it again. You can't view probability as an aggregate.

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Well, you're wrong. You just don't know how to do it.

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8.6/12 = a 71.67% probability that we win an individual contest.

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While your math is correct, your analysis is NOT my analysis.

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But as I said above, the likelihood that we win could be far greater or far lower in a given game.

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I COMPLETELY agree. In fact, the odds greatly differ from 71.67% for each game. In fact, I know what the odds are for each game based on betting lines:

100% . . McNeese St
. 55% . . Mississippi St
. 55% . . Auburn
. 90% . . Syracuse
100% . . Eastern Michigan
. 70% . . South Carolina
. 80% . . Florida
100% . . Western Kentucky
. 30% . . Alabama
. 65% . . Arkansas
. 45% . . Ole Miss
. 70% . . Texas A&M

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The relative odds of success in one game (when viewed individually) has no bearing on the relative odds of success in another.

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I COMPLETELY agree.

And when you add up those odds for the season, they indicate that LSU is likely to win 8.6 games, rounded to 9 games out of 12.