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re: What happened to Jordan Jefferson over the course of his career

Posted on 7/31/15 at 9:29 am to
Posted by BCS Statmaster
Member since Jan 2007
1552 posts
Posted on 7/31/15 at 9:29 am to
quote:

Seems like it's pretty obvious who the better QB was... right?


Given # plays during 2011 for each QB appx. equal ... please explain why in your opinion ESPN got it wrong ... methodology, accuracy?
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5741 posts
Posted on 7/31/15 at 9:40 am to
quote:

quote:

Seems like it's pretty obvious who the better QB was... right?
Given # plays during 2011 for each QB appx. equal ... please explain why in your opinion ESPN got it wrong ... methodology, accuracy?
First, please tell me the equation by which you or I or anyone can determine the ESPN QBR? I mean, we can all verify it, right?

Second, the ESPN QBR that you provided includes the 2011 post-season, two games in which Lee did not have stats. The SECCG and BCSCG are different from the regular season in quality and kind. You can't possibly be suggesting that those two games should be included in a comparison between Jefferson and Lee, can you?!?!


Jefferson was a better QB than Lee.

Jefferson's three regular season starts in 2011 were the three best offensive games of the season.

It wasn't that one of Jefferson's games was better than one of Lee's games. It wasn't that the average of Jefferson's three starts was better than the average of Lee's starts. Every regular season game that Jefferson started was better than every regular season game that Lee started.

LSU's best rushing game happened when Jefferson started.

LSU's best total offense game happened when Jefferson started.

LSU's best completion percentage game happened when Jefferson started.

In the nine games that Lee started during the regular season, LSU gained over 450 yards just once. In the three games that Jefferson started during the regular season, LSU gained more than 450 yards in every game. Every game.


Jefferson had better regular season passing numbers than Lee.

Compare regular season numbers. Jefferson had better passing numbers than Lee: higher Completion %; higher QB Rating; higher YPA; lower Interception %. And that's not even mentioning how much Jefferson improved the team's rushing attack. LSU rushed for over 250 yards in every game of Jefferson’s three starts.

Lee threw for over 200 yards (213) just once in nine games. Jefferson threw for more than 200 yards (208) once in just three games.

Jefferson completed 100% of his passes against Ole Miss. Lee never completed 100% of his passes in any of his starts, not even against Northwestern State, an FCS school.

In Lee's nine regular season starts, he completed less than 50% of his passes three times. In Jefferson's three starts, he always completed more than 55% of his passes.

Jefferson (2011 Regular Season)
64.3%, 9.34 YPA, 5 TDs, 1 INT, INT% 1.43%, Overall Rating 163.48

Lee (2011 Regular Season)
62.3%, 7.82 YPA, 14 TDs, 3 INTs, INT% 1.80%, Overall Rating 152.04

Post-season numbers cannot be compared. Jefferson played in the Championship games. Lee didn't.


Jefferson was more efficient than Lee

From the moment that Jefferson threw his first pass in the Florida game in 2011, he had a higher QB Rating than Lee. Jefferson had a better efficiency rating than Lee, and that better efficiency continued for the rest of the regular season. That's right, from his first pass until the end of the regular season, Jefferson was more efficient than Lee.

So when folks say that Lee was an efficient QB, the "most efficient" QB in the SEC or in the nation, at no point during the regular season, from the time Jefferson threw his first pass until the end of the regular season, was Lee more efficient than Jefferson.
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