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re: Mike and Mike posed an interesting question
Posted on 3/12/15 at 8:15 am to slackster
Posted on 3/12/15 at 8:15 am to slackster
quote:
That assumes you have a 2.5% chance of making one shot. I think that is a bit high, especially considering the pressure of the situation.
I think it means you have a 2.5% chance to make 1/20, which I would say incorporates the other varaibles, as the amount of shots is known. Or said differently, you will achieve the goal for every 2 times you accept; you have a 50% chance of achieving the goal vs going to jail.
I dont think that is high by any means, and illustrates that this is an even wager.
And yes, each shot IS dependent on the last, this isnt a coin flip. The average guy that walks out to do this will likely be pretty tired by shot 20. The expected result is driven by historical performance, rather than available outcomes...free throw shooters, for instance, achieve their overall FT% from all of their shots, but you will certainly see variations in their splits (ie their percentage after a make/miss on first attempt). This just shows that expected results are dependent on external circumstances.
3
Posted on 3/12/15 at 10:28 am to OceanMan
quote:I'm not really sure what you are saying.
I think it means you have a 2.5% chance to make 1/20, which I would say incorporates the other varaibles, as the amount of shots is known. Or said differently, you will achieve the goal for every 2 times you accept; you have a 50% chance of achieving the goal vs going to jail.
If we assume you have a 2.5% chance to make a single shot, and that is consistent (obviously pressure would change things), you would expect to make at least one shot about 40% of the time.
Basically it is 1 - (the probability you won't make a single shot) or 1 - (.975^20) = .397.
Posted on 3/12/15 at 10:31 am to OceanMan
quote:If I recall, studies have shown this dependency is minimal, if not relatively non-existent.
for instance, achieve their overall FT% from all of their shots, but you will certainly see variations in their splits (ie their percentage after a make/miss on first attempt).
Posted on 3/12/15 at 10:40 am to OceanMan
quote:
And yes, each shot IS dependent on the last, this isnt a coin flip. The average guy that walks out to do this will likely be pretty tired by shot 20
That illustrates my point. If anything, the likelihood of you making it on your 20th attempt is much worse than the likelihood of you making it on your 1st attempt. However, people are acting like they're guaranteed a make if they get enough shots.
It is the same misconception for the people that walk up and drop $500 on black in roulette after 9 straight red numbers. Surely the chances of it being red 10 times in a row are miniscule, ~.1%, but that doesn't mean shite for the 10th spin.
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