re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question

quote:

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As a few posters (myself included) have suggested, try using MANY more doors (100, 1000 etc) and then remove every door with a goat except for your initial choice and the last remaining door. The more doors you add, the more clear it becomes that you do not have a 50/50 chance by staying with your initial pick every time.

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Exactly. Monty knows the correct answer, and he's opening all the wrong doors for you. That is information you should use.

Say you're playing the lottery, and you pick six numbers. The cashier (who knows the winning numbers) then prints up a gazillion tickets, scratches off all of them except for one to show they are all losers.

I bet you switch.