re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question

Your opinion would hold if the other 98 doors were randomly opened, with no prior knowledge of which door held the car...but in the case of the game show, the host always knows which door has the car. It's his job to fool you into thinking you made the right choice initially.

Another way to look at it: 98 doors will always be opened to reveal goats. It will always come down to your initial door and the last remaining closed door. If you played the game 100 different times, do you really feel that you would have picked the winning door initially 50 of those times?