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Message
re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question
Posted on 2/24/15 at 8:51 am to PygmalionEffect
Posted on 2/24/15 at 8:51 am to PygmalionEffect
quote:
blows me away that college educated people cannot immediately see that
Meh, it certainly isn't an obvious answer.
I like to break it down much further than 3 doors. Imagine 100 doors - 99 goats and 1 car - Door #37. You choose Door #42. Monty opens the other 98 doors leaving you with your choice and #37. Basically, if you stay, you're saying the other 98 doors being opened were irrelevant, because you stayed with your original choice. If you switch, your effectively giving yourself the chance to see 99 doors get opened, hence your chance of winning is 99% if you switch, and only 1% if you stay.
5
Posted on 2/24/15 at 8:58 am to slackster
well i simply dont agree with that. even if it makes me wrong.
when you remove 98 doors it changes the odds. i find it silly to pretend the odds are still 1/100 when you have changed the data.
when you remove 98 doors it changes the odds. i find it silly to pretend the odds are still 1/100 when you have changed the data.
Posted on 2/24/15 at 9:02 am to slackster
quote:
blows me away that college educated people cannot immediately see that
It's a particularly silly comment when you see that the problem has stumped and confused professors with PHd's in Mathematics.
Posted on 2/24/15 at 9:03 am to slackster
quote:
Meh, it certainly isn't an obvious answer.
True that - My original knee-jerk response was that it was 50-50. I actually had to do some analytical thinking to become totally comfortable with the real 33-67 result and how to explain it to kids.
Posted on 2/24/15 at 9:11 am to slackster
quote:
I like to break it down much further than 3 doors. Imagine 100 doors - 99 goats and 1 car
I haven't analyzed this problem in over 30 years, but this is the first time I have heard the explanation using an example of more than 3 initial doors. When you use the 100 door analogy, it does become immediately obvious that you should switch. I wish I had thought of that when my kids were asking for an explanation.
Posted on 2/24/15 at 9:59 am to slackster
quote:
I like to break it down much further than 3 doors. Imagine 100 doors - 99 goats and 1 car - Door #37. You choose Door #42. Monty opens the other 98 doors leaving you with your choice and #37. Basically, if you stay, you're saying the other 98 doors being opened were irrelevant, because you stayed with your original choice. If you switch, your effectively giving yourself the chance to see 99 doors get opened, hence your chance of winning is 99% if you switch, and only 1% if you stay.
I finally understand. That was broken down perfectly.
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