- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question
Posted on 2/23/15 at 5:20 pm to KosmoCramer
Posted on 2/23/15 at 5:20 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
In Let's Make A Deal, you aren't better off switching at the end because all results are independent of each other.
In let's make a deal, in this 3 door game, you are better off switching every damn time, unless you think they hurry up and move the car after Monte eliminates one door. Period, end of discussion, it is a point of probability theory that is easily proved.
If the car is randomly placed behind one of three doors, and never moved, your first pick yields 2 sets in the statistical universe, one with 33% chance and another with 67% chance of having a car. Monte's removal of one door does not at all change the probability of them choosing to place the car behind the door they did, which still yields a 33% chance of it being behind your original selection and a 67% chance of it not being behind there.
Since we know one door is removed from set #2, the remaining door now is the only option in set #2 which still has 67% chance of containing the car.
I'm done, this is funny.
Posted on 2/23/15 at 5:26 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
quote:agreed. keep an eye out for my annual monty hall question thread next january.
this is funny.
Popular
Back to top
![logo](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/images/layout/TDIcon.jpg)