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Message
re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:54 pm to link
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:54 pm to link
quote:
I have to disagree with the "always switch" conclusion. The correct answer about the probability is that it is 50/50.
Not treading all this but the real answer is:
Door A (your initial selection) = 1/3 chance of winn
Doors B & C (initially not selected) = 2/3 chance of winning.
Show host eliminates Door C (knowing it does not have the car), therefore door B now has the full 2/3 chance of winning.
Door A has 33.3% chance.
Door B has 66.7% chance.
If the car was randomly assigned after the elimination of Door C, the chances would revert to 50/50, but it doesn't happen that way.
2
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:57 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
Solid simple explanation Sid.
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:58 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
quote:
If the car was randomly assigned after the elimination of Door C, the chances would revert to 50/50, but it doesn't happen that way.
Or if Monty doesn't know and sometimes opens the door with the car, then it is 50/50 as well.
In Let's Make A Deal, you aren't better off switching at the end because all results are independent of each other.
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