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re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:33 pm to Monk
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:33 pm to Monk
quote:I think I get what you are saying now. By conceptually, you mean our intuition to say 50/50? In this case, intuition would lead us astray.
The actual results are what they are. There is nothing to discuss, except conceptually with regard to one's view of the presentation of the choices made available to the contestant.
This post was edited on 2/23/15 at 4:34 pm
1
Posted on 2/23/15 at 10:04 pm to buckeye_vol
Predictably, this has already gone several pages. Here's the deal:
Let's assume there are n doors. You pick one, the chance your choice is correct is 1/n.
Now Monty proceeds to open all the doors you didn't pick except for one. Monty knows which one has the car, and will never open that door.
Trust Monty's advice.
Let's assume there are n doors. You pick one, the chance your choice is correct is 1/n.
Now Monty proceeds to open all the doors you didn't pick except for one. Monty knows which one has the car, and will never open that door.
Trust Monty's advice.
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