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re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:09 pm to link
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:09 pm to link
50/50 at that point.
Everyone is making the flaw of focusing on what you pick where, logically, it makes more sense if you focus on what you don't pick.
Everyone is making the flaw of focusing on what you pick where, logically, it makes more sense if you focus on what you don't pick.
This post was edited on 2/23/15 at 4:12 pm
1
Posted on 2/23/15 at 4:16 pm to ell_13
quote:50/50 if the car is there. Although, I'm not exactly sure I've interpreted his scenario correct, but if 1/3 of the choices are randomly taken away, then the car won't even be an option 1/3 of the time.
50/50 at that point.
Everyone is making the flaw of focusing on what you pick where, logically, it makes more sense if you focus on what you don't pick.
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