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re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question
Posted on 2/23/15 at 3:13 pm to Monk
Posted on 2/23/15 at 3:13 pm to Monk
quote:
If the question is what is the chance of flipping heads even after flipping 9 heads in a row, the answer is 50/50.
If the question is what are the chances of flipping heads 10 consecutive times in a row?
Different answer.
Agree. I always get a kick out of people who think the odds of H/T varies on one single coin flip based on what's happened in previous flips. I'm horrendous at math and statistics, but one thing I DO know is that it's still 50/50 per flip ha.
1
Posted on 2/23/15 at 5:14 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Agree. I always get a kick out of people who think the odds of H/T varies on one single coin flip based on what's happened in previous flips. I'm horrendous at math and statistics, but one thing I DO know is that it's still 50/50 per flip ha.
If I recall, I think she actually gave the best possible answer - it was about a roulette wheel. The question was something like "the wheel comes up red ten times in a row...certainly you have to bet black, right". Her answer said it was an independent event UNLESS the wheel was fixed, so if anything other than a random selection, you should bet red on the 11th.
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