re: Money Talk Reunion Thread

I just don't even think it's almost always predictable. Even though the supply side can be forecasted, short-term demand is almost entirely due to weather, which is inherently unpredictable, at least in any sort of fundamental value sort of understanding. Sure, we can make long-term demand projections, such as those expected increases associated with future coal-to-natural gas switching in the power generation space, but the market refuses to be forward-looking for more than just a few weeks out. It's the most speculative contract on the planet and should be reserved primarily for industrial hedging purposes.

One could presumably go way out on the curve with less speculation, but let's face it, those people in that thread are trying to make short-term calls, and the more "predictable" they think it is, the more likely they are to lose all or most of their money.