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re: Opinions on market direction considering economy, margin debt, & valuation
Posted on 1/15/15 at 5:41 am to Lsut81
Posted on 1/15/15 at 5:41 am to Lsut81
quote:
I believe this is opposite of what analysts are seeing and it is confusing them. They thought retail and the likes would see a boost from low oil prices, but it looks like consumers are hoarding the extra cash.
I agree this is what some are saying, but I don't buy it. I don't think we've had time to see the effect of low gasoline prices, but will in coming months. Earnings may not pop for the last quarter, but will in current and next.
I think current volatility is a result of widespread concern that markets are over priced making investors trigger happy. How anyone can suggest excess supply of energy could hurt the economy is beyond me.
1
Posted on 1/15/15 at 6:03 am to Ole War Skule
They're concerned about lack of demand for energy.
We can debate inflation and deflation and their impact on precious metals, or rather what the latest stories define inflation or deflation as, but to me the more interesting conversation is base metals and energy.
I'm not saying inflation or deflation doesn't have predictable (mostly) impact on pm's and base metals, but in the case of base metals, there has been a lack of industrial demand.
What I'm suggesting as a possible scenario for energy is it is possible there is a lack of demand here also.
Again, we'll find out after the fact.
We can debate inflation and deflation and their impact on precious metals, or rather what the latest stories define inflation or deflation as, but to me the more interesting conversation is base metals and energy.
I'm not saying inflation or deflation doesn't have predictable (mostly) impact on pm's and base metals, but in the case of base metals, there has been a lack of industrial demand.
What I'm suggesting as a possible scenario for energy is it is possible there is a lack of demand here also.
Again, we'll find out after the fact.
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