re: Saints -3.5 at Tampa Bay seems like the lock of the year

Couldn't disagree with you more. This is a "dreams killer" game. You should always fade/avoid teams coming off a game where they get statistically eliminated from the playoffs.

This is also a revenge game for Tampa who played the Saints great the first time they played. Add to that you want to lay points on the road. You're setting yourself up for failure IMO, but good luck!