re: How many cycles will it take for dems to take back the house?

The first thing you have to look at is: what was this vote really about? Damned near everyone who campaigned against a Dem ran on that their Dem opponent voted for Obamacare, not their own merits. This tells me the mid-terms were more about the ACA backlash than anything else.

With that in mind, if the employer mandate turns out to be the steaming clusterfrick that the individual mandate has been, then look for the GOP to win the next 2-3 cycles, maybe 4 if they repeal the ACA (voters have short memories, so 4 is a long shot). If the GOP does not make a visible attempt to remove the ACA or SCOTUS doesn't rule against it in the Spring, the wins could end with the 2016 elections.

The biggest problem the Dems face with all this is that (at least right now) their top contender is Hillary and she has the same sort of healthcare reform albatross hanging around her neck that Romney did. She not only tried to push her own when Bill was President (ie: Hillarycare) but she has been a big supporter of the ACA. At a time when anti-ACA sentiment is riding high, she's going to be a very poor choice as candidate because of that background.

With that, the GOP could run pretty much anyone (yes, even Jindal) and win in 2016 (barring unforeseen events like war, economic meltdown, etc).