re: Big FOMC Meeting Today

quote:

---

So does this mean that the markets(US) are still going to be going up/down?

---

If you're asking if markets are going to be more volatile in 2015 compared to the previous 6 years (past couple months excluded) I would completely agree. We've had what I believe is the largest wedge between economics and markets in US history via monetary policy (which I believe was needed), as QE winds down and the Fed hikes their target rate the wedge will slowly be removed (note this does not mean I believe interest rates across the curve will rise).

quote:

---

Or is there going to be a market 'correction' for 2015?

---

For equities? I think it depends on data, valuations are in the fair/slightly rich area but that doesn't mean returns can't continue to go up. Most of the run-up in equities the past couple years has been multiple expansion, which would indicate that eventually valuations would correct. However, if we start getting stronger EPS growth then obviously valuations become more attractive. We've had ~11% return on the S&P so far this year, I think at most we'll get single digit positive returns with the higher range of my probability distribution in the low negative single digit range. This is predicated on a mid-2015 rate hike, always remember the #1 rule of investing regardless of what asset class you're in... DON'T FIGHT THE FED. EVER. You will never win.

quote:

---

I won't mention any names but one guy(nationally syndicated radio) in the finance world is predicting a huge market 'correction' at least by mid 2015.

---

There have been literally hundreds (potentially thousands) of very good financial professionals calling for a huge market correction in '10, '11, '12, '13, and '14. I thought equities would correct in 2013 for sure, then we had +20-30% returns.

quote:

---

And no, this isn't that bald headed guy who is 'mad'.

---

Sorry, you didn't narrow it down at all