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re: Big FOMC Meeting Today

Posted on 12/17/14 at 2:35 pm to
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10248 posts
Posted on 12/17/14 at 2:35 pm to
What does this mean here:

"Markets have been priced ~60-70% for mid 2015 rate hikes"

And how could one be sure?
Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5626 posts
Posted on 12/17/14 at 4:51 pm to
She's made some gaffes in press conferences that she shouldn't have (no need for her to comment on the fair value of biotech stocks). But those aside she's done a fairly good job so far. I'm trying to be as absolutely neutral as possible here and not compare her to her predecessor which I hold in extremely high regard. I think the time to judge Yellen's actions as a leader and chair will be this upcoming year.

This is all from an "output" perspective. As Russian has noted, she is an absolutely wonderful public speaker who engages the audience in a way that is somewhat similar to William Wallace from Braveheart, Denzel from Remember the Titans, mixed with a little bit of the president's speech from Independence Day. In no way am I bored at all during her press conferences.
This post was edited on 12/17/14 at 4:56 pm
Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5626 posts
Posted on 12/17/14 at 4:55 pm to
quote:

"Markets have been priced ~60-70% for mid 2015 rate hikes"

This comes from looking at the forward OIS curves and the Eurodollar curves. It would be a lot easier to me to explain if I could use photobucket at work (or a Bloomberg terminal at home). It's not an exact science, but as close as you can come. In a simplified sense, its where your forward rate, minus your term premium, indicates at least a 25bps increase in rates.
This post was edited on 12/17/14 at 4:57 pm
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