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re: Big FOMC Meeting Today
Posted on 12/17/14 at 10:47 am to BennyAndTheInkJets
Posted on 12/17/14 at 10:47 am to BennyAndTheInkJets
A month ago, I would have said "considerable period" was dead and June/July 2015 would see a hike.
Now? With Oil dropping, Russia having problems, and even with this Cuba news, who knows? The entire short term calculus is now jumbled.
Fed in recent years seems to only want to move levers if they are sure what the end result will be. I think they just lost their assurance.
I think the still remove considerable period from the statement, but I think Yellen at the PC mentions the new issues.
Now? With Oil dropping, Russia having problems, and even with this Cuba news, who knows? The entire short term calculus is now jumbled.
Fed in recent years seems to only want to move levers if they are sure what the end result will be. I think they just lost their assurance.
I think the still remove considerable period from the statement, but I think Yellen at the PC mentions the new issues.
This post was edited on 12/17/14 at 11:03 am
Posted on 12/17/14 at 11:01 am to LSUFanHouston
The main thing I'm looking for is how they talk about the geopolitical issues. They've been very focused in their language to the US over the past 6 years, only twice have they mentioned other economies. Once about Europe for a while in 2011/2012 and they mentioned EM once last year during the taper tantrum.
They've been very focused on looking at the US in as much of a vacuum as possible since they have very little influence over other central banks. I don't think they mention Russia in the statement and at worst they mention oil in indifference, but more likely a tailwind for the economy.
The key here is if they don't mention Russia/Oil, yet don't remove "considerable period", how do they reference this in the press conference since economic data continues to come in strong.
They've been very focused on looking at the US in as much of a vacuum as possible since they have very little influence over other central banks. I don't think they mention Russia in the statement and at worst they mention oil in indifference, but more likely a tailwind for the economy.
The key here is if they don't mention Russia/Oil, yet don't remove "considerable period", how do they reference this in the press conference since economic data continues to come in strong.
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