re: Saudis manipulating oil lower - ok with $80/barrel for next 2 years

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With the age of Ghawar and Safaniya the question that should be asked is can SA maintain the production level they are at for much longer? While some of the predictions about their true reserves were too alarmist feeding the peak oil crowd rig count alone over the last few years tells you oil is getting more capital intensive even for the Saudis.

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I think all the Saudis can do at this point is raise prices through cutbacks but I don't believe they have the power any longer to flood the market through increased production. Those days are gone unless they turn up something new out in the desert. I read today that they are cutting prices to shore up market share ahead of Nov OPEC meetings. The speculation is that they want the other OPEC nations to share in the cutbacks to push prices back up.

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With the age of Ghawar and Safaniya the question that should be asked is can SA maintain the production level they are at for much longer?

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I do some work for an international drilling company and about six months ago the Saudis went all in as far as drilling goes.
This is actually a really smart move on their part.