re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months

quote:

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The most recent Russian sov. debt CDS rate I can find is dated 10/24/14 and the rate rose 8 basis points to 263.86. Eta: By comparison, the current US 5-year CDS is 17.50.

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263 isn't very scary. By contrast, Venezuela's is over 2000, which implies only about a 35% chance of default over the next 2 years.

Russia's chance of default over the next year - the time period of your prediction - as calculated according to CDS spreads (which now look to be about 300) is less than 5%.

So, am I right to assume that your prediction in the OP can be read as saying the CDS market is off by orders of magnitude? Your prediction appears to be 100% chance of default within 12 months (although your thread title still says 6 months). Global trading markets in such things imply that the chances are 95% lower than your estimation.

Question: how are you attempting to profit from this knowledge of yours and how can the rest of us participate as well? I would love to place a bet on a certainty that is basically being shrugged off by the market.

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