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Started By
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re: RESULTS ALL IN -Tuesday, Sept. 9th, Primaries Thread ( NY, DE, RI, MA & NH)
Posted on 9/9/14 at 1:36 am to NHTIGER
Posted on 9/9/14 at 1:36 am to NHTIGER
(#2 of 2)
MASSACHUSETTS:
Ahh, the Bay State, home of beloved Senators Ted Kennedy, John Kerry and Elizabeth Warren. Ted's dead, John's gone and Warren's on the Warpath. However, the other MA Senator, household name Ed Markey is unopposed today and despite being semi-comatose and unsure which way is up, will easily defeat the unknown stiff the GOP nominates today.
MA has 9 seats in the House and all 9 are currently held by Dems. 8 of those should stay Dem easily, but in CD #6, incumbent John Tierney faces double obstacles in order to get back to Washington. Today, he must defeat fellow Dem Seth Moulton in the primary, a candidate against whom he held only a 1 point lead as of last week. Whichever Dem. wins must face that rarity - a strong Republican challenger for a MA House seat. Richard Tisei, who is both liberal and gay , lost 48-47 to Tierney in 2012, when Obama beat Romney by 23 points statewide. Tisei is unopposed tonight, so he's just sitting back waiting for an opponent in his quest to break the Democratic stranglehold in the MA congressional delegation.
*** SETH MOULTON HAS DEFEATED INCUMBENT CONGRESSMAN JOHN TIERNEY IN MA 6TH CD DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ***
Dem. Governor Deval Patrick is not running for reelection. There are 3 Dem candidates for the nomination - Martha Coakley (who lost to Scott Brown for Kennedy's vacant Senate seat in a 2010 special election) is the frontrunner , leading Steve Grossman by 10 or 12 points in most polls, and Don Berwick is running a weak 3rd. With a win, Coakley will be up against sure-bet GOP nominee Charlie Baker in November. She also leads Baker by 10-12 points in polling. But then again, she led Scott Brown by 9 points with 9 days to go back in 2010, and lost 52-47!!
*** MARTHA COAKLEY HAS BEEN DECLARED THE WINNER OVER STEVE GROSSMAN AND DAN BERWICK FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION FOR GOVERNOR ***
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Here's where I finally get to cast some votes.
Women currently hold both Senate seats, both House seats and the Governor's office. Only one is a Republican, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, and she's safe until 2016. The other 4 offices have to be defended this year. The incumbent Dem women in all 4 races have either no opposition or token opposition today, so it's all about the Republicans. And all 4 are being heavily contested.
In the GOP primary for Governor, Walt Havenstein is a slight favorite over Andrew Hemingway. The winner will almost certainly lose to popular first-term Gov. Maggie Hassan in November. Hassan, by the way, is expected to compete for Sen. Ayotte's Senate seat in 2016. (I'm voting for Havenstein.)
*** HAVENSTEIN DECLARED WINNER OVER HEMINGWAY***
Another former female Governor is NH's other Senator - Jeanne Shaheen. She will face the winner of a TEN-person race for the GOP nomination. Former MA Senator Scott Brown is the favorite, but the last few days have seen an unbelievable barrage of negative ads against him, falsely claiming that he is a former Washington lobbyist. The ads have been bought by a new super-PAC named MAYDAY which, ironically, was formed to fight , what else - Super-PACS! The group has a ton of cash and their agenda is to select 5 races this year and prove a point that a weaker candidate can beat a stronger candidate based on big spending alone. They "adopted" Jim Rubens in this race and Rubens had to commit to work for campaign spending caps to earn their big $$$$ in his fight to beat Brown today. The ad buy was so heavy ( I saw the ad about 7 times during the Patriots game on Sunday) and widespread that some believe it could move the undecideds to Rubens and throw a scare into Brown as the results come in. If Rubens wins today, Shaheen will easily defeat him in November, whereas a Brown win is likely to result in a very close general election. Former U.S. Senator Bob Smith is expected to run 3rd. (I'm voting for Brown.)
*** SCOTT BROWN DECLARED WINNER OVER RUBENS AND SMITH ***
IN CD1, incumbent Dem Carol Shea-Porter is the ultimate Obama groupie. She held this seat but lost it in the 2010 GOP "wave" year. In 2012, with Obama back on the ballot, she re-took the seat , defeating the guy who defeated her. She's considered very vulnerable in this off-year election and there are 4 GOP candidates fighting to oppose her in November, including that same guy, Frank Guinta, who beat her in 2010 and lost to her in 2012. He's a slight favorite over another gay Republican and "academic", Dan Innis who, with no significant opposition for Shea-Porter today, is expected to get a lot of Independent voters. Guinta has been polling even or better against Shea-Porter in their continuing game of musical House chair, while polls indicate Innis would lose to her by double digits. So the GOP has a real chance to pick up a rare New England House seat here if Guinta wins the primary today - otherwise, CD#1 likely stays in Dem hands. (I can't vote in this one since I can't vote twice like urban Dems can.)
*** FRANK GUINTA HAS BEEN DECLARED THE WINNER OVER DAN INNIS FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR THE NH 1ST CD SEAT IN THE HOUSE ***
And last but definitely not least, the CD #2 seat now held by Dem Annie Kuster. (Annie Kuster would be a cool name for a hot dame - unfortunately she bears a striking resemblance to General Custer instead. Their 'staches are about the same.) NH is 94% white and 2% Asian. Among the 4 Republicans running to oppose Kuster in November are a Hispanic woman and a black man. (to go along with the gay guy in CD #1 - NH GOP is bustin' out the multiculturalism this year). The three main candidates are running behind Kuster (just as Custer's troops were running behind him) in Nov. matchup polls, but are within single digits. Marilinda Garcia is a good-lookin' 31 yr old state Rep who had Ted Cruz campaigning for her here on Sunday. I like Garcia but am not a Cruz fan, so that messed with my mind. Gary Lambert is neck-and-neck with Garcia (hmm, "neck-and-neck" with Marilinda? lucky SOB!), and black candidate Jim Lawrence has been coming on very strong in the closing days. I could live with any of the three winning the nomination, so whichever one is most likely to take that seat away from General Kuster is the one I want to win. The last poll of potential November matchups had Garcia within 3 points of Kuster, Lambert within 6 and Lawrence within 8 but closing faster than the other two. I honestly don't know which of the three I will vote for when I get behind that curtain. I've changed my mind 12 times just since I started writing this opening thread!!!
*** MARILINDA GARCIA DECLARED WINNER OF REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR 2ND CD HOUSE SEAT ***
And there you have more information than you could possibly want to know about Tuesday's primaries in the Northeast. At least all will have EST early closing times, so presumably no 3 AM updates this time around.
The End. (until results start to come in)
MASSACHUSETTS:
Ahh, the Bay State, home of beloved Senators Ted Kennedy, John Kerry and Elizabeth Warren. Ted's dead, John's gone and Warren's on the Warpath. However, the other MA Senator, household name Ed Markey is unopposed today and despite being semi-comatose and unsure which way is up, will easily defeat the unknown stiff the GOP nominates today.
MA has 9 seats in the House and all 9 are currently held by Dems. 8 of those should stay Dem easily, but in CD #6, incumbent John Tierney faces double obstacles in order to get back to Washington. Today, he must defeat fellow Dem Seth Moulton in the primary, a candidate against whom he held only a 1 point lead as of last week. Whichever Dem. wins must face that rarity - a strong Republican challenger for a MA House seat. Richard Tisei, who is both liberal and gay , lost 48-47 to Tierney in 2012, when Obama beat Romney by 23 points statewide. Tisei is unopposed tonight, so he's just sitting back waiting for an opponent in his quest to break the Democratic stranglehold in the MA congressional delegation.
*** SETH MOULTON HAS DEFEATED INCUMBENT CONGRESSMAN JOHN TIERNEY IN MA 6TH CD DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ***
Dem. Governor Deval Patrick is not running for reelection. There are 3 Dem candidates for the nomination - Martha Coakley (who lost to Scott Brown for Kennedy's vacant Senate seat in a 2010 special election) is the frontrunner , leading Steve Grossman by 10 or 12 points in most polls, and Don Berwick is running a weak 3rd. With a win, Coakley will be up against sure-bet GOP nominee Charlie Baker in November. She also leads Baker by 10-12 points in polling. But then again, she led Scott Brown by 9 points with 9 days to go back in 2010, and lost 52-47!!
*** MARTHA COAKLEY HAS BEEN DECLARED THE WINNER OVER STEVE GROSSMAN AND DAN BERWICK FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION FOR GOVERNOR ***
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Here's where I finally get to cast some votes.
Women currently hold both Senate seats, both House seats and the Governor's office. Only one is a Republican, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, and she's safe until 2016. The other 4 offices have to be defended this year. The incumbent Dem women in all 4 races have either no opposition or token opposition today, so it's all about the Republicans. And all 4 are being heavily contested.
In the GOP primary for Governor, Walt Havenstein is a slight favorite over Andrew Hemingway. The winner will almost certainly lose to popular first-term Gov. Maggie Hassan in November. Hassan, by the way, is expected to compete for Sen. Ayotte's Senate seat in 2016. (I'm voting for Havenstein.)
*** HAVENSTEIN DECLARED WINNER OVER HEMINGWAY***
Another former female Governor is NH's other Senator - Jeanne Shaheen. She will face the winner of a TEN-person race for the GOP nomination. Former MA Senator Scott Brown is the favorite, but the last few days have seen an unbelievable barrage of negative ads against him, falsely claiming that he is a former Washington lobbyist. The ads have been bought by a new super-PAC named MAYDAY which, ironically, was formed to fight , what else - Super-PACS! The group has a ton of cash and their agenda is to select 5 races this year and prove a point that a weaker candidate can beat a stronger candidate based on big spending alone. They "adopted" Jim Rubens in this race and Rubens had to commit to work for campaign spending caps to earn their big $$$$ in his fight to beat Brown today. The ad buy was so heavy ( I saw the ad about 7 times during the Patriots game on Sunday) and widespread that some believe it could move the undecideds to Rubens and throw a scare into Brown as the results come in. If Rubens wins today, Shaheen will easily defeat him in November, whereas a Brown win is likely to result in a very close general election. Former U.S. Senator Bob Smith is expected to run 3rd. (I'm voting for Brown.)
*** SCOTT BROWN DECLARED WINNER OVER RUBENS AND SMITH ***
IN CD1, incumbent Dem Carol Shea-Porter is the ultimate Obama groupie. She held this seat but lost it in the 2010 GOP "wave" year. In 2012, with Obama back on the ballot, she re-took the seat , defeating the guy who defeated her. She's considered very vulnerable in this off-year election and there are 4 GOP candidates fighting to oppose her in November, including that same guy, Frank Guinta, who beat her in 2010 and lost to her in 2012. He's a slight favorite over another gay Republican and "academic", Dan Innis who, with no significant opposition for Shea-Porter today, is expected to get a lot of Independent voters. Guinta has been polling even or better against Shea-Porter in their continuing game of musical House chair, while polls indicate Innis would lose to her by double digits. So the GOP has a real chance to pick up a rare New England House seat here if Guinta wins the primary today - otherwise, CD#1 likely stays in Dem hands. (I can't vote in this one since I can't vote twice like urban Dems can.)
*** FRANK GUINTA HAS BEEN DECLARED THE WINNER OVER DAN INNIS FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR THE NH 1ST CD SEAT IN THE HOUSE ***
And last but definitely not least, the CD #2 seat now held by Dem Annie Kuster. (Annie Kuster would be a cool name for a hot dame - unfortunately she bears a striking resemblance to General Custer instead. Their 'staches are about the same.) NH is 94% white and 2% Asian. Among the 4 Republicans running to oppose Kuster in November are a Hispanic woman and a black man. (to go along with the gay guy in CD #1 - NH GOP is bustin' out the multiculturalism this year). The three main candidates are running behind Kuster (just as Custer's troops were running behind him) in Nov. matchup polls, but are within single digits. Marilinda Garcia is a good-lookin' 31 yr old state Rep who had Ted Cruz campaigning for her here on Sunday. I like Garcia but am not a Cruz fan, so that messed with my mind. Gary Lambert is neck-and-neck with Garcia (hmm, "neck-and-neck" with Marilinda? lucky SOB!), and black candidate Jim Lawrence has been coming on very strong in the closing days. I could live with any of the three winning the nomination, so whichever one is most likely to take that seat away from General Kuster is the one I want to win. The last poll of potential November matchups had Garcia within 3 points of Kuster, Lambert within 6 and Lawrence within 8 but closing faster than the other two. I honestly don't know which of the three I will vote for when I get behind that curtain. I've changed my mind 12 times just since I started writing this opening thread!!!
*** MARILINDA GARCIA DECLARED WINNER OF REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR 2ND CD HOUSE SEAT ***
And there you have more information than you could possibly want to know about Tuesday's primaries in the Northeast. At least all will have EST early closing times, so presumably no 3 AM updates this time around.
The End. (until results start to come in)
This post was edited on 9/9/14 at 10:02 pm
3
Posted on 9/9/14 at 2:51 am to NHTIGER
quote:Informative and concise! Dude. You write better than 95% of the news staffers in the country.
NHTIGER
I regret I have only one up-vote to give to your posts!
This post was edited on 9/9/14 at 2:57 am
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:58 pm to NHTIGER
Favorite Martha Coakley has been declared the winner in the Democratic primary for the nomination for Governor of Massachusetts, defeating Steve Grossman and Dan Berwick. Coakley has only 42% of the vote with 90% counted, a disappointing figure that could spell trouble for her going into her general election battle with Republican Charlie Baker in November. Even though "it's Massachusetts", some give Baker a shot at the win in November if he can finish strong.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:14 pm to NHTIGER
Final Call of the night and it's only 11:11 PM in the East!
Upstart Iraq war vet Seth Moulton, lightly regarded just a few weeks ago, has upset incumbent Democratic congressman John Tierney in the 6th CD of Massacusetts. Tierney had just barely survived a 2012 race with Republican Richard Tisei (he won by 1 point) and a rematch was expected in November. Tisei was unopposed tonight. This is still another potential New England takeaway of a Dem-held House seat. No MA congressman has lost a primary in 20 years, and Tierney is the first Dem congressman to lose a primary in 2014 (3 Republican incumbents lost their primaries.) With this being the last primary of the year, Tierney will hold that distinction as the only incumbent House Dem nationally to lose his primary.
That's it, everything's in, all done for the night, all done for the 2014 primary season.
Upstart Iraq war vet Seth Moulton, lightly regarded just a few weeks ago, has upset incumbent Democratic congressman John Tierney in the 6th CD of Massacusetts. Tierney had just barely survived a 2012 race with Republican Richard Tisei (he won by 1 point) and a rematch was expected in November. Tisei was unopposed tonight. This is still another potential New England takeaway of a Dem-held House seat. No MA congressman has lost a primary in 20 years, and Tierney is the first Dem congressman to lose a primary in 2014 (3 Republican incumbents lost their primaries.) With this being the last primary of the year, Tierney will hold that distinction as the only incumbent House Dem nationally to lose his primary.
That's it, everything's in, all done for the night, all done for the 2014 primary season.
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