re: Loston or Sunseri? smh...

Found it:

LINK

For five year+ starters:
Round 1- 63.6%
Round 2- 41.4%
Round 3- 21.5%
Round 4- 14.8%
Round 5- 10.4%
Round 6- 6.3%
Round 7- 5.5%

They don't have UDFAs but I imagine it's in the 5-7 round ranges. They may have better odds than 6th and 7th rounders as they can pick their teams and have a better shot at making it.

After the first round there is a sharp decline, and after the second another sharp decline. Then you get a more gradual into a crawl decline after that.

There is a 52.5% chance combined that 1st and 2nd rounders start long term, an 18.15% chance combined that 3rd and 4th rounders start long term, and a 7.4% chance 5th, 6th and 7th rounders start.

Back to my original point, you aren't drafting guys in the 5th or later and expecting them to become starters. Hell you aren't drafting guys in the 3rd and 4th and really expecting it(though many 3rd rounders become role players).

Edit:
Combined, there is actually only a 9.25% chance that guys from the 4-7th round start, which is slightly lower than my 1/10 guesstimate about 4-7th rounders combined starting. Long term of course.

Edit2:
Let me correct myself a little. Still suffering from burn out.

Before I was talking about the % of guys that become starters, not the chance. This post is about the chance percent, not the physical percent.

I need sleep. Bad.