quote:
Every year you have around 250 guys come in through the draft, and more in UDFA. LINK / Average NFL career of a guy who makes an opening day roster is 6 years(1st rounders average 9 years). Players that make at least 3 credited years average 7 years. They don't break it down by starters(and that would be hard to do with injuries, guys getting promoted/demoted, going to start for another team, being a backup on a new team, etc.). So let's say starters are those guys that way more often than not get at least 3 credited years and put it at 7 years. So in 7 years you have about 350 players a year(250+ draft picks + about 3 UDFAs per team(96)) = 2,450 players coming in. That's 3.5 times the amount of starters in the league. Making things simple, if every starter played 7 years and that was it and had to be replaced by one of those new players that came in over those 7 years, only about 29% of them will be starters. Of those, most of them will be 1st and 2nd rounders. Over 7 years you have 448 of those. Not that they will all be starters but if you figure most of them are(let's say 85% for 381 players), that leaves 323 spots over 5 rounds and UDFA. That's roughly 2,000 players for 323 spots, meaning only 16% of them will be starters. If we say the 3rd round is a (low imo) 50% hit rate for starters, that's about 120 guys. Now you have 200 spots for 1,750 players. Only about 11% of them will become starters. Possibly only 11% of the starters in the league come from 4-7th rounders and UDFA. So if you are EXPECTING those guys to become starters you are over reaching. It happens but it's like a 1/10 shot.

u had me till u messsed up the 1/10 stat lmao

This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 4:36 am

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Posted by bonethug0108

Avondale

Member since Mar 2013

12690 posts

Posted on 5/12/14 at 12:46 pm to JacksonLSU

Please excuse me for parts of that post. By that point I was completely burned out on all this draft stuff so not all of that was with a clear head.

I'll have to find the link, but I figured I had over shot it with the 85% thing for rounds 1 and 2. I meant to say 85% for the first round and 65-70% for the second, but those are still high.

Not that those numbers are incorrect about guys starting period because I believe that's close(maybe even low) for the first two rounds, but I was talking long term starters.

Needless to say, however, the percent is still pretty low after round 2(I think for guys that have started 5 years+ it was about 60%+ round 1, 40%+ round 2, 20%+ round 3, 15%ish round 4, 10% round 5, and I forgot the last 2).

So if you are drafting players after round 2 and expecting them to be long term starters you will mostly be disappointed.

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