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Posted on 4/23/14 at 3:21 pm to WG_Dawg
You already like the Dolphins, so go with the Panthers.
Posted on 4/23/14 at 4:27 pm to WG_Dawg
Dallas is sneaky good.
If you're a stats guy, listen up. If you're not, stop reading now. The biggest concept in hockey "fancystats", a derisive name that the stat geeks have proudly adopted is that of possession. You win by tilting the ice in your favor. Teams with better possession win. the best possession teams year in and year out are Boston, Chicago, and LA... you know, the best teams in the league.
OK, possession is tough to measure as there is no time of possession stat, so we use a stand in: shots attempted. Corsi measures shots on goal + shots wide of net + blocked shots. Fenwick is the same minus the blocked shots. Additionally, score effects heavily influence Corsi and Fenwick, as teams that are winning tend not to press as much and give up possession in exchange for territory and time. Anyway, this has lead to the creation of FenClose, Fenwick when the game is within 1 or tied in the final 5 minutes.
Still with me?
OK, good. Here's this year's top FenClose teams:
LA 56.5%
Chicago 55.1%
SJ 54.7%
Boston 54.%
Now, let's check in on Dallas, St. Louis, Nashville, and Colorado
St. Louis 53.3%
Dallas 51.8%
Nashville 50.7%
Colorado 46.9%
In fact, the Avs have the fourth worst FenClose in the NHL. If you're a fancystat guy, the Avs are an awful choice, and Dallas has far better underlying metrics. They haven't seen the wins yet, but stat geeks would argue that the performance is already there, results will follow.
If you're a stats guy, listen up. If you're not, stop reading now. The biggest concept in hockey "fancystats", a derisive name that the stat geeks have proudly adopted is that of possession. You win by tilting the ice in your favor. Teams with better possession win. the best possession teams year in and year out are Boston, Chicago, and LA... you know, the best teams in the league.
OK, possession is tough to measure as there is no time of possession stat, so we use a stand in: shots attempted. Corsi measures shots on goal + shots wide of net + blocked shots. Fenwick is the same minus the blocked shots. Additionally, score effects heavily influence Corsi and Fenwick, as teams that are winning tend not to press as much and give up possession in exchange for territory and time. Anyway, this has lead to the creation of FenClose, Fenwick when the game is within 1 or tied in the final 5 minutes.
Still with me?
OK, good. Here's this year's top FenClose teams:
LA 56.5%
Chicago 55.1%
SJ 54.7%
Boston 54.%
Now, let's check in on Dallas, St. Louis, Nashville, and Colorado
St. Louis 53.3%
Dallas 51.8%
Nashville 50.7%
Colorado 46.9%
In fact, the Avs have the fourth worst FenClose in the NHL. If you're a fancystat guy, the Avs are an awful choice, and Dallas has far better underlying metrics. They haven't seen the wins yet, but stat geeks would argue that the performance is already there, results will follow.
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