re: Game of Thrones S4:E2:"The Lion and the Rose", HODORS ONLY (no book readers)

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So who ends up losing their head for this? Anybody or massive cover up. You would think somebody would have to even if they didn't do it.

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I don't think they can afford a cover up. Tywin would think that makes him look weak. Vengeance/Justice must be served regardless of who is actually guilty. I think the most likely candidates are:

The Fool
Tyrion
Oberyn Martell

The Fool may not be a high value enough target to satisfy Cersei. It also might be embarrassing to the Lannister name to have a king poisoned by his fool.

Tywin hates Tyrion but also is very protective of him as he is a Lannister. While I can see GRRM killing off Tyrion in this way, I can't see Tywin letting it go down like this unless he sees this as a chance to cleanly disown Tyrion.

Oberyn Martell came to the wedding to kill Lannisters. Even if he's not guilty he would make an excellent fall guy and could possibly lead to more drama and a new House to have conflict with being that Cersei's daughter is in Dorne.