re: Tornado Watch until 3 AM - LA/MS/ARK

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LA AND SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 282338Z - 290215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TORNADO OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN LA THROUGH EVENING. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL APPEAR
LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS ERN
TX...AND WILL MOVE INTO LA LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AS
WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MIXED STORM
MODES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH THE MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES
AND HAIL WITH THE CELLS.

CURRENTLY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SURGE WWD OUT OF MS AND
SERN LA INTO CNTRL LA. MEANWHILE...NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS EXIST TO THE
W OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CELLS HAS FORMED ON THIS
RETREATING BOUNDARY...WITH SIGNS OF MIDLEVEL ROTATION. IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR THIS STORM TO PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO.

LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES FROM THE
W...MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS FEATURE. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
THREAT OF A TORNADO. THEREFORE...A TORNADO WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/28/2014

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