re: Timing the market

I have been successfully timing the market for the last three years. I use about 5% like your study with the S&P 500 Index and PPG stock. They are in a 401K plan and there is no fees or commissions associated with "Fund Transfers" to and from the "Stable Value" fund. (cash) I am not overly aggressive and have averaged about 9 transfers each way on a yearly basis.

For the years 2011 and 2012 my return was greater than two times all of the plan's funds. For 2013 I would have been much better by simply holding PPG stock but I still had a 12% return and collectively my IRAs which I keep inactive returned collectively 28%.

My second jump in for an amount typically equal to or slightly greater than the first purchase will be at approximately a 12% drop from the top. I know one day that I will be caught in a big dip and it will take time to recover but knowing that I will never have bought at the top it is something that I can live with.

I think that you are on to something. If you have discipline for strict guidelines and can avoid high broker's fees you can prosper with your strategy.